Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Androgynous [The Replacements] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Ashes Of American Flags | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Be Not So Fearful [Bill Fay] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Ça Plane Pour Moi [Plastic Bertrand] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Candyfloss | Summerteeth | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Cars Can't Escape | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Children of the Revolution [T. Rex] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Cold Hard World [Daniel Johnston] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Cousin | Cousin | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Do Re Mi [Woody Guthrie] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 9, 2025 |
| ELT | Summerteeth | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Fat Bottomed Girls [Queen] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Funk #49 [James Gang] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 8, 2025 |
| God Save The Queen [Sex Pistols] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Gun | Still Feel Gone | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Hearts Hard to Find | Cruel Country | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 11, 2024 |
| High on a Rocky Ledge [Moondog] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 8, 2025 |
| Hoodoo Voodoo | Mermaid Avenue | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Houses [Elyse Weinberg] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 4, 2023 |
| How Hard It Is for a Desert to Die | Warm | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| I Got Nightmares [Q65] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 18, 2026 |
| I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight [Richard and Linda Thompson] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| I'll Fight | Wilco (the album) | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 14, 2024 |
| If I Ever Was a Child | Schmilco | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Jesus Wept | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 | |
| Just Say Goodbye | Schmilco | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Kicking Television | A Ghost Is Born | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Kiss [Prince] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Less Than You Think | A Ghost Is Born | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 15, 2024 |
| London Calling [The Clash] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Magnet [NRBQ] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Magnetized | Star Wars | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Many Worlds | Cruel Country | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Me and Jane Doe [Charlotte Gainsbourg] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| Message From Mid-Bar | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 | |
| Mexico [Sammy Tweedy] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Misunderstood | Being There | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| More Like The Moon | More Like The Moon EP | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Ne Me Quitte Pas [Jacques Brel] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| Needles in a Camel's Eye [Brian Eno] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| On And On And On | Sky Blue Sky | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Out for a Walk | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 15, 2024 | |
| Outtasite (Outta Mind) | Being There | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Pick Up The Change | A.M. | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Satan, Your Kingdom Must Come Down | March 16-20, 1992 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Say You Love Me | Hot Sun Cool Shroud | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Screen Door | No Depression | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 18, 2023 |
| She's A Jar | Summerteeth | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Side With The Seeds | Sky Blue Sky | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Soldier Child | Cousin | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Someday Some Morning Sometime | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Someone Else's Song | Being There | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 14, 2024 |
| Spanish Bombs [The Clash] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Sunken Treasure | Being There | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 19, 2024 |
| Tell Me Something Good [Rufus] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| Tennessee Waltz [Redd Stewart] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2025 |
| The Ruling Class | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 | |
| The Thanks I Get | Sky Blue Sky Tour EP | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| This Time Tomorrow [The Kinks] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Venus Stopped the Train | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 18, 2024 | |
| Walking The Cow [Daniel Johnston] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 12, 2025 |
| War Pigs [Black Sabbath] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Wedding Cake | Twilight Override | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| When The Roses Bloom Again | Chelsea Walls | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Wish I Had Not Said That [J.J. Cale] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 9, 2025 |
| You Are My Face | Sky Blue Sky | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| You Don't Love Me Yet [Roky Erickson] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 11, 2025 |
| You Never Know | Wilco (the album) | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Cosmic Dancer [T. Rex] | Cover | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| Dreamer In My Dreams | Being There | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Far, Far Away | Being There | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| How To Fight Loneliness | Summerteeth | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| I Got You (At The End Of The Century) | Being There | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 13, 2024 |
| I'm Kind of in Love with You | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 | |
| Infinite Surprise | Cousin | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Mine Forever | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 19, 2024 | |
| Now and Then | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2024 | |
| One By One | Mermaid Avenue | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| One Sunday Morning (Song For Jane Smiley's Boyfriend) | The Whole Love | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Opaline | Love Is the King | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Orphan | Warmer | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Pittsburgh | Cousin | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Please Be Patient With Me | Sky Blue Sky | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Summer Noon | Sukierae | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| Summer Teeth | Summerteeth | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 13, 2024 |
| The Red Brick | Warm | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| Tired of Taking It Out on You | Cruel Country | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Too Real | Twilight Override | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Warm (When the Sun Has Died) | Warm | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| What Light | Sky Blue Sky | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| You're Not Gonna Win | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 | |
| A Bowl and a Pudding | Cousin | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Company In My Back | A Ghost Is Born | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Everlasting Everything | Wilco (the album) | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Helpless [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Natural Disaster | Love Is the King | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2024 |
| One Wing | Wilco (the album) | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Pecan Pie | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Pot Kettle Black | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Sky Blue Sky | Sky Blue Sky | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.