Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiss [Prince] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Less Than You Think | A Ghost Is Born | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 15, 2024 |
| London Calling [The Clash] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Magnet [NRBQ] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Magnetized | Star Wars | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Many Worlds | Cruel Country | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Me and Jane Doe [Charlotte Gainsbourg] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| Message From Mid-Bar | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 | |
| Mexico [Sammy Tweedy] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Misunderstood | Being There | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| More Like The Moon | More Like The Moon EP | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Ne Me Quitte Pas [Jacques Brel] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| Needles in a Camel's Eye [Brian Eno] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| On And On And On | Sky Blue Sky | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Out for a Walk | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 15, 2024 | |
| Outtasite (Outta Mind) | Being There | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Pick Up The Change | A.M. | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Satan, Your Kingdom Must Come Down | March 16-20, 1992 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Say You Love Me | Hot Sun Cool Shroud | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Screen Door | No Depression | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 18, 2023 |
| She's A Jar | Summerteeth | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Side With The Seeds | Sky Blue Sky | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Soldier Child | Cousin | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Someday Some Morning Sometime | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Someone Else's Song | Being There | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 14, 2024 |
| Spanish Bombs [The Clash] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Sunken Treasure | Being There | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 19, 2024 |
| Tell Me Something Good [Rufus] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| Tennessee Waltz [Redd Stewart] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2025 |
| The Ruling Class | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 | |
| The Thanks I Get | Sky Blue Sky Tour EP | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| This Time Tomorrow [The Kinks] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Venus Stopped the Train | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 18, 2024 | |
| Walking The Cow [Daniel Johnston] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 12, 2025 |
| War Pigs [Black Sabbath] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Wedding Cake | Twilight Override | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| When The Roses Bloom Again | Chelsea Walls | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Wish I Had Not Said That [J.J. Cale] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 9, 2025 |
| You Are My Face | Sky Blue Sky | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| You Don't Love Me Yet [Roky Erickson] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 11, 2025 |
| You Never Know | Wilco (the album) | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.