Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cosmic Dancer [T. Rex] | Cover | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| Dark Neon | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Dear Employer (The Reason I Quit) | Down With Wilco | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| ELT | Summerteeth | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Give Back The Key To My Heart [Doug Sahm] | Anodyne | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 3, 2023 |
| Hearts Hard to Find | Cruel Country | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Hotel Arizona | Being There | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| I'm Kind of in Love with You | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 | |
| Just Say Goodbye | Schmilco | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Message From Mid-Bar | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 | |
| Mine Forever | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 19, 2024 | |
| More Like The Moon | More Like The Moon EP | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Now and Then | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2024 | |
| Opaline | Love Is the King | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Orphan | Warmer | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Over My Head (Everything Goes) | Twilight Override | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Pick Up The Change | A.M. | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| Please Be Patient With Me | Sky Blue Sky | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Poor Places | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Reservations | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Sad Kind of Way | Cruel Country | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Someday Soon | Being There | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| Summer Noon | Sukierae | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| The Red Brick | Warm | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| Too Real | Twilight Override | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Warm (When the Sun Has Died) | Warm | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| Wilco (The Song) | Wilco (the album) | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| You're Not Gonna Win | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 | |
| A Long Time Ago | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 | |
| After the Gold Rush [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 22, 2026 |
| Ain't No Sunshine [Bill Withers] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 4, 2026 |
| Alone | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 | |
| Amber [311] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Androgynous [The Replacements] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Are You Here for the Festival [Michael Hurley] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Be Not So Fearful [Bill Fay] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Born Alone | The Whole Love | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Bright Leaves | Ode to Joy | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 2, 2023 |
| Ça Plane Pour Moi [Plastic Bertrand] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Cars Can't Escape | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Children of the Revolution [T. Rex] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Cold Hard World [Daniel Johnston] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Comment (If All Men Are Truly Brothers) [Charles Wright and the Watts 103rd St. Rhythm Band] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Cortez the Killer [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Cry All Day | Schmilco | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 2, 2023 |
| Deeper Down | Wilco (the album) | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Do Re Mi [Woody Guthrie] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 9, 2025 |
| Effigy [Creedence Clearwater Revival] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Everyday People [Sly and the Family Stone] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Farewell Transmission [Songs: Ohia (Jason Molina)] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Fat Bottomed Girls [Queen] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Feed Of Man | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Ffunny Ffrends [Unknown Mortal Orchestra] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| From Far Away | Warm | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Funk #49 [James Gang] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 8, 2025 |
| Glad and Sorry [Faces] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| God Save The Queen [Sex Pistols] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Gun | Still Feel Gone | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| He's A Dick | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Hesitation | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 2, 2025 | |
| High on a Rocky Ledge [Moondog] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 8, 2025 |
| Houses [Elyse Weinberg] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 4, 2023 |
| How Hard It Is for a Desert to Die | Warm | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| I Couldn't Say It to Your Face [Arthur Russell] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| I Got Nightmares [Q65] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 18, 2026 |
| I Love Rock 'n' Roll [The Arrows] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 21, 2026 |
| I Must Be High | A.M. | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 2, 2023 |
| I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight [Richard and Linda Thompson] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Ill Fated | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| In Bloom [Nirvana] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Jesus Wept | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 | |
| Jump into the Fire [Harry Nilsson] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Kerosene [Big Black] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Kiss [Prince] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Kiss an Angel Good Mornin' [Charley Pride] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Little Hands [Alexander "Skip" Spence] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| London Calling [The Clash] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Looking Forward To Seeing You | Weird Tales | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Loser [Beck] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Lost Love | Weird Tales | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Lotta Love [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Louie, Louie [Richard Berry] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Love and Not Love | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 | |
| Magnet [NRBQ] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Magnetized | Star Wars | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Me and Jane Doe [Charlotte Gainsbourg] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| Mexico [Sammy Tweedy] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Mystery Binds | Cruel Country | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 27, 2023 |
| Ne Me Quitte Pas [Jacques Brel] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| Needles in a Camel's Eye [Brian Eno] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Nothing'severgonnastandinmyway(again) | Summerteeth | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Our Lips Are Sealed [The Go-Go's] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 21, 2026 |
| Out for a Walk | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 15, 2024 | |
| Outta Mind (Outta Sight) | Being There | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Plateau [Meat Puppets] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Portland Water [Michael Hurley] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Queen [Perfume Genius] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Raise a Little Hell [Trooper] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 4, 2026 |
| Revolution Blues [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Satan, Your Kingdom Must Come Down | March 16-20, 1992 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.