Likely Tonight

A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.

Showing All time ×All artists × 665 songs · 1,957 setlisted shows in scope
Timeframe
All timeLast 3 yearsLast 12 monthsSince latest album
Artist
All artists WilcoJeff TweedyTweedy
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Song Album Likely % Shows Last 10 Last 20 Last played
Lies of the Living Dead In Rock0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
Little Lies [Fleetwood Mac]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 6, 2023
Lookin' For A Love [Neil Young]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
Marquee Moon [Television]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 16, 2019
My Words 0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Nov 17, 2005
new song (Let's Fight) 0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Aug 6, 2006
One True Vine Sky Blue Sky Tour EP0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 5, 2023
Say I Love You Again 0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 6, 2023
Say You Love Me Hot Sun Cool Shroud0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Dec 7, 2024
Shrug and Destroy Schmilco0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Sep 9, 2016
Sick Server Warmer0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 10, 2019
So Long Loose Fur0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Dec 7, 2002
Sunloathe The Whole Love0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jun 28, 2024
Ten Years Ago Today Arabella0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 23, 2004
The Old Plantation Down With Wilco0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
Throwaway Lines Twilight Override0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20May 29, 2026
We'll Meet Again [Vera Lynn]Arabella0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 23, 2004
What I Don't Believe Down With Wilco0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
When You're Not Mine Arabella0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 23, 2004
With A Gun 0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
Woodgrain More Like The Moon EP0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 13, 2003
(What's So Funny 'Bout) Peace, Love and Understanding [Nick Lowe]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jul 18, 2013
A Beard Of Stars [T. Rex]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Oct 2, 2001
A Fool Such As I [Trader (Elvis Presley)]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Oct 19, 1999
All The Young Dudes [David Bowie/Mott The Hoople]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jul 26, 2013
Answers 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Dec 7, 2002
Bright Phoebus [Lal and Mike Waterson]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jan 7, 2019
Can't Stop Talking 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Oct 27, 1995
Chelsea Walls Theme Chelsea Walls0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Dec 7, 2002
Cold Turkey 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Mar 31, 1997
Come Together [The Beatles]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Aug 15, 1999
Cosmic Dancer [T. Rex]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jun 30, 2024
Cut Your Hair [Pavement]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jan 20, 2022
Darkness Is Cheap Cruel Country0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20May 27, 2022
Death of the Last Stripper [Terry Allen]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Oct 9, 2022
Don't Let Me Down [Beatles]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Sep 30, 2021
Elegant Transaction Loose Fur0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Dec 7, 2002
Empty Head Warmer0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jan 20, 2020
fragment of Elizabeth Cotten song 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Aug 18, 2006
Happy Xmas (War Is Over) [John Lennon & Yoko Ono]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Dec 19, 2019
Having a Hard Time 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jan 6, 2023
I Thought I Held You A.M.0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Feb 20, 2008
I Wanna Destroy You [Soft Boys]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Dec 16, 2019
I'm Beginning To See The Light [Don George, Johnny Hodges, Duke Ellington and Harry James]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Apr 8, 2006
I'm Kind of in Love with You 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20May 31, 2024
Just a Friend [Biz Markie]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jul 19, 2021
Just Wanted to Thank You 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jun 12, 1995
Love & Mercy [Brian Wilson]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Feb 13, 2009
Love Will Keep Us Together [Captain And Tennille]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Dec 31, 2004
Merciful Night Arabella0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jan 23, 2004
Mine Forever 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Oct 19, 2024
Now and Then 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Oct 29, 2024
Old Maid Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-20140.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jan 9, 2003
One Hundred Years From Now [Gram Parsons]Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-20140.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Dec 31, 1998
Out for a Walk 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Apr 15, 2024
Over My Head (Everything Goes) Twilight Override0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Apr 8, 2026
Paranoid [Black Sabbath]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Nov 3, 1997
Piss It Away 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Nov 24, 1994
Plateau [Meat Puppets]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Mar 16, 2026
Saddest Eyes Twilight Override0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20May 29, 2026
Sandusky March 16-20, 19920.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Feb 28, 1999
Solid Land Arabella0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jan 23, 2004
Strangers [Kinks]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jan 17, 2026
Street Success 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Dec 7, 2002
The New World [X]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Aug 4, 2013
The Night Chicago Died Again In Rock0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Apr 17, 2003
The Plains Cruel Country0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Sep 11, 2022
This Ain't No Lounge Ax 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Sep 13, 2000
Too Real Twilight Override0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jan 8, 2026
TV Eye [The Stooges]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Aug 3, 2002
Twinkle Twinkle Little Star [Jane Taylor]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Feb 5, 1997
Unknown??? 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jul 31, 2000
Waterloo Sunset [The Kinks]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jul 19, 2013
Who Loves the Sun [The Velvet Underground]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jul 9, 2013
You're Not Gonna Win 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jun 30, 2024
After the Gold Rush [Neil Young]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Mar 22, 2026
Ain't Much To Say 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Nov 21, 1994
Ain't No Sunshine [Bill Withers]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Apr 4, 2026
Amarillo Highway [Terry Allen]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Sep 15, 2022
Amber [311]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Mar 11, 2026
Anarchy In The UK [Sex Pistols]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jan 29, 2005
And Your Bird Can Sing [The Beatles]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jun 21, 2013
Androgynous [The Replacements]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Nov 6, 2025
Any Major Dude Will Tell You [Donald Fagen/Walter Becker (Steely Dan)]Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-20140.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Nov 5, 1999
Are You Here for the Festival [Michael Hurley]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Apr 1, 2026
Auld Lang Syne 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Dec 31, 2004
Baba O'Riley [The Who]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jul 30, 2000
Bang Bang (My Baby Shot Me Down) [Cher]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Aug 3, 2013
Barstool Blues 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Apr 17, 2003
Boeing Spacearium 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
Ça Plane Pour Moi [Plastic Bertrand]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Feb 17, 2026
Cajun Angel 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Sep 11, 1999
Chest Fever [The Band]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Jul 21, 2013
Children of the Revolution [T. Rex]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Feb 21, 2026
Citizens Ode to Joy0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Nov 5, 2019
Climbing [Meat Puppets]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20May 27, 2022
Close My Eyes [Arthur Russell]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Oct 1, 2021
Cold Hard World [Daniel Johnston]Cover0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Nov 12, 2025
Cold Shoulder Still Feel Gone0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Nov 6, 1996
Colon Song 0.0%0.1%0 / 100 / 20Nov 16, 2000

How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.

Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.