Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Just A Kid | The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Kamera | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Kerosene [Big Black] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Kingpin | Being There | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Kiss an Angel Good Mornin' [Charley Pride] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Lotta Love [Neil Young] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Love and Not Love | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 | |
| Monday | Being There | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Muzzle Of Bees | A Ghost Is Born | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Portland Water [Michael Hurley] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Raise a Little Hell [Trooper] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 4, 2026 |
| Secret Door | Twilight Override | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Sonny Feeling | Wilco (the album) | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Spiders (Kidsmoke) | A Ghost Is Born | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Take Me Home, Country Roads [John Denver] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| The Wind Cries Mary [Jimi Hendrix] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Two Lips, Two Lungs and One Tongue [Nomeansno] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 5, 2026 |
| Victoria [The Kinks] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 5, 2026 |
| War On War | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Where Is My Mind? [Pixies] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| You Ain't Goin' Nowhere [Bob Dylan] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| You Satellite | Star Wars | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Acuff-Rose | Anodyne | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Handshake Drugs | A Ghost Is Born | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| I'm Always In Love | Summerteeth | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| I'm The Man Who Loves You | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Laminated Cat | Loose Fur | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Over My Head (Everything Goes) | Twilight Override | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Remember The Mountain Bed | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Saddest Eyes | Twilight Override | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Sunlight Ends | Cousin | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Better Song | Twilight Override | 7.6% | 6.8% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 5, 2026 |
| Throwaway Lines | Twilight Override | 7.6% | 6.8% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| You Are Not Alone | 7.6% | 6.8% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 | |
| Twilight Override | Twilight Override | 7.7% | 39% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Half-Asleep | Love Is the King | 8.5% | 11% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Betrayed | Twilight Override | 12% | 27% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Sign of Life | Twilight Override | 14% | 23% | 1 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Western Clear Skies | Twilight Override | 18% | 23% | 1 / 10 | 5 / 20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Parking Lot | Twilight Override | 20% | 32% | 1 / 10 | 5 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Having Been Is No Way to Be | Warm | 30% | 48% | 1 / 10 | 9 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Love Is for Love | Twilight Override | 44% | 30% | 5 / 10 | 9 / 20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Don't Forget | Warm | 60% | 34% | 8 / 10 | 10 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| KC Rain (No Wonder) | Twilight Override | 68% | 68% | 7 / 10 | 13 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Gwendolyn | Love Is the King | 74% | 66% | 7 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| No One's Moving On | Twilight Override | 76% | 75% | 7 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Stray Cats in Spain | Twilight Override | 79% | 86% | 7 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Cry Baby Cry | Twilight Override | 83% | 77% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Flowering | Sukierae | 83% | 77% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Diamond Light Pt. 1 | Sukierae | 84% | 82% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Out in the Dark | Twilight Override | 84% | 82% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| World Away | Sukierae | 84% | 82% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Low Key | Sukierae | 84% | 84% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Caught Up in the Past | Twilight Override | 85% | 86% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Mirror | Twilight Override | 85% | 86% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| New Orleans | Twilight Override | 85% | 86% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| One Tiny Flower | Twilight Override | 85% | 86% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Love Is the King | Love Is the King | 85% | 57% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Family Ghost | Warmer | 89% | 77% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| This Is How It Ends | Twilight Override | 91% | 89% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Feel Free | Twilight Override | 92% | 91% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Forever Never Ends | Twilight Override | 92% | 91% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Enough | Twilight Override | 92% | 93% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Lou Reed Was My Babysitter | Twilight Override | 93% | 95% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.