Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dear Employer (The Reason I Quit) | Down With Wilco | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| A Robin or a Wren | Love Is the King | 2.1% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Ain't It a Shame | Twilight Override | 2.1% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Amar Bharati | Twilight Override | 2.1% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Hummingbird | A Ghost Is Born | 2.1% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Passenger Side | A.M. | 2.1% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Via Chicago | Summerteeth | 2.1% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| After the Gold Rush [Neil Young] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 22, 2026 |
| Amber [311] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Effigy [Creedence Clearwater Revival] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Everyday People [Sly and the Family Stone] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 25, 2026 |
| I Couldn't Say It to Your Face [Arthur Russell] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| I Love Rock 'n' Roll [The Arrows] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 21, 2026 |
| Jump into the Fire [Harry Nilsson] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Little Hands [Alexander "Skip" Spence] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Loser [Beck] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Louie, Louie [Richard Berry] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Our Lips Are Sealed [The Go-Go's] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 21, 2026 |
| Plateau [Meat Puppets] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Queen [Perfume Genius] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Streets of Baltimore [Tompall Glaser/Harlan Howard] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| The Lark in the Morning [Traditional] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| The Long Cut | Anodyne | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 22, 2026 |
| Up on the Sun [Meat Puppets] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Willin' [Little Feat] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| You're No Good [Clint Ballard Jr.] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Box Full Of Letters | A.M. | 1.8% | 9.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Meant to Be | Cousin | 1.8% | 9.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 28, 2024 |
| The Universe | Cruel Country | 1.8% | 9.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 1, 2025 |
| Evicted | Cousin | 1.6% | 7.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Normal American Kids | Schmilco | 1.6% | 7.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 6, 2025 |
| Radio King | Down By The Old Mainstream | 1.6% | 7.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Either Way | Sky Blue Sky | 1.3% | 6.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Guaranteed | Warmer | 1.3% | 6.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Some Birds | Warm | 1.3% | 6.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Even I Can See | Love Is the King | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 1, 2025 |
| Falling Apart (Right Now) | Cruel Country | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Let's Go Rain | Warm | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Save It for Me | Love Is the King | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Should've Been In Love | A.M. | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| A Bowl and a Pudding | Cousin | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Company In My Back | A Ghost Is Born | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Everlasting Everything | Wilco (the album) | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Helpless [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Natural Disaster | Love Is the King | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2024 |
| One Wing | Wilco (the album) | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Pecan Pie | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Pot Kettle Black | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Sky Blue Sky | Sky Blue Sky | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Whole Love | The Whole Love | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Cosmic Dancer [T. Rex] | Cover | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| Dreamer In My Dreams | Being There | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Far, Far Away | Being There | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| How To Fight Loneliness | Summerteeth | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| I Got You (At The End Of The Century) | Being There | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 13, 2024 |
| I'm Kind of in Love with You | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 | |
| Infinite Surprise | Cousin | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Mine Forever | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 19, 2024 | |
| Now and Then | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2024 | |
| One By One | Mermaid Avenue | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| One Sunday Morning (Song For Jane Smiley's Boyfriend) | The Whole Love | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Opaline | Love Is the King | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Orphan | Warmer | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Pittsburgh | Cousin | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Please Be Patient With Me | Sky Blue Sky | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Summer Noon | Sukierae | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| Summer Teeth | Summerteeth | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 13, 2024 |
| The Red Brick | Warm | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| Tired of Taking It Out on You | Cruel Country | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Too Real | Twilight Override | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Warm (When the Sun Has Died) | Warm | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| What Light | Sky Blue Sky | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| You're Not Gonna Win | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 | |
| Androgynous [The Replacements] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Ashes Of American Flags | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Be Not So Fearful [Bill Fay] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Ça Plane Pour Moi [Plastic Bertrand] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Candyfloss | Summerteeth | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Cars Can't Escape | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Children of the Revolution [T. Rex] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Cold Hard World [Daniel Johnston] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Cousin | Cousin | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Do Re Mi [Woody Guthrie] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 9, 2025 |
| ELT | Summerteeth | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Fat Bottomed Girls [Queen] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Funk #49 [James Gang] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 8, 2025 |
| God Save The Queen [Sex Pistols] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Gun | Still Feel Gone | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Hearts Hard to Find | Cruel Country | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 11, 2024 |
| High on a Rocky Ledge [Moondog] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 8, 2025 |
| Hoodoo Voodoo | Mermaid Avenue | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Houses [Elyse Weinberg] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 4, 2023 |
| How Hard It Is for a Desert to Die | Warm | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| I Got Nightmares [Q65] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 18, 2026 |
| I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight [Richard and Linda Thompson] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| I'll Fight | Wilco (the album) | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 14, 2024 |
| If I Ever Was a Child | Schmilco | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Jesus Wept | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 | |
| Just Say Goodbye | Schmilco | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Kicking Television | A Ghost Is Born | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.