Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Darling | Summerteeth | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 14, 1999 |
| Ne Me Quitte Pas [Jacques Brel] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| Needles in a Camel's Eye [Brian Eno] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| No Depression | No Depression | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 18, 2001 |
| No Matter What [Badfinger] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 29, 2005 |
| Nope | Schmilco | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 6, 2016 |
| One and a Half Stars | Ode to Joy | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 25, 2023 |
| One More Night | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 11, 1997 | |
| Out On The Weekend [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 29, 2005 |
| Peace In The Valley | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 11, 1997 | |
| Pink Moon [Nick Drake] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 29, 2005 |
| Political Science [Randy Newman] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 5, 2005 |
| Quarters | Schmilco | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 22, 2017 |
| Reincarnation [Roger Miller] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 25, 1997 |
| Rock Salt And Nails [Utah Phillips] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 14, 2000 |
| Sally Free And Easy [Cyril Tawney] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 14, 2000 |
| Sandusky | March 16-20, 1992 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 28, 1999 |
| Save My Ass | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 14, 2000 | |
| Say You Love Me | Hot Sun Cool Shroud | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Shrug and Destroy | Schmilco | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 6, 2016 |
| Six Months In A Leaky Boat [Split Enz] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 29, 2005 |
| So Long | Loose Fur | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 14, 2000 |
| Soldier Child | Cousin | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Space Oddity [David Bowie] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 14, 2016 |
| Spanish Bombs [The Clash] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Standing O | The Whole Love | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 30, 2012 |
| Stardog's Lament | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 29, 2005 | |
| Strangers [Kinks] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 31, 2012 |
| Sunloathe | The Whole Love | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 30, 2012 |
| Take This Hammer [Leadbelly] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 21, 2004 |
| Taste the Ceiling | Star Wars | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 13, 2016 |
| Tell Me Something Good [Rufus] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| Tennessee Waltz [Redd Stewart] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2025 |
| That Year | No Depression | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 18, 1997 |
| The Joke Explained | Star Wars | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 13, 2016 |
| The Lonesome Wind That Blows | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2000 | |
| The Old Country Waltz [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 18, 2020 |
| This Time Tomorrow [The Kinks] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Twinkle Twinkle Little Star [Jane Taylor] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 11, 1997 |
| Walking The Cow [Daniel Johnston] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 12, 2025 |
| War Pigs [Black Sabbath] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Watch Me Fall | Still Feel Gone | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 31, 2012 |
| Wedding Cake | Twilight Override | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Wherever | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 31, 2012 | |
| Why Would You Wanna Live | Being There | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 11, 1997 |
| Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow [Carole King] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 29, 1995 |
| Wish I Had Not Said That [J.J. Cale] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 9, 2025 |
| Woodgrain | More Like The Moon EP | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 6, 2003 |
| Yellow Submarine [The Beatles] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 29, 2005 |
| You Don't Love Me Yet [Roky Erickson] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 11, 2025 |
| You Never Know | Wilco (the album) | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| You're Really Gone | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 16, 2003 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.