Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When You Wake Up Feeling Old | Summerteeth | 0.6% | 2.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 21, 2020 |
| Bombs Above | Warm | 0.6% | 2.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 25, 2023 |
| Hints | Cruel Country | 0.6% | 2.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 6, 2025 |
| I Know What It's Like | Warm | 0.6% | 2.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 25, 2025 |
| In A Future Age | Summerteeth | 0.6% | 2.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Where Do I Begin | Star Wars | 0.5% | 2.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 22, 2017 |
| The Thanks I Get | Sky Blue Sky Tour EP | 0.5% | 2.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Standing O | The Whole Love | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 9, 2014 |
| Lost Love | Weird Tales | 0.5% | 2.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Black Eye | March 16-20, 1992 | 0.5% | 2.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 14, 2014 |
| Many Worlds | Cruel Country | 0.5% | 2.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| We Aren't the World (Safety Girl) | Schmilco | 0.5% | 2.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2019 |
| Black Moon | The Whole Love | 0.5% | 2.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 25, 2023 |
| Shake It Off | Sky Blue Sky | 0.5% | 2.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 9, 2014 |
| Infinite Surprise | Cousin | 0.5% | 2.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Magnetized | Star Wars | 0.5% | 2.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| My Darling | Summerteeth | 0.5% | 2.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 4, 2008 |
| We're Just Friends | Summerteeth | 0.4% | 2.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 18, 2008 |
| Taste the Ceiling | Star Wars | 0.4% | 2.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2016 |
| Quiet Amplifier | Ode to Joy | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 1, 2026 |
| Stray Cats in Spain | Twilight Override | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Cousin | Cousin | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 22, 2024 |
| New Moon | Sukierae | 0.4% | 1.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 22, 2021 |
| Summer Noon | Sukierae | 0.4% | 1.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 30, 2024 |
| The Universe | Cruel Country | 0.4% | 1.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 8, 2026 |
| Tired of Taking It Out on You | Cruel Country | 0.4% | 1.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 20, 2025 |
| Feed Of Man | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Guaranteed | Warmer | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Pieholden Suite | Summerteeth | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 24, 2022 |
| Someday Some Morning Sometime | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| We Were Lucky | Ode to Joy | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 19, 2020 |
| Blood Of The Lamb | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 12, 2014 |
| High as Hello | Sukierae | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 25, 2022 |
| Love Like a Wire [Diane Izzo] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2022 |
| Pittsburgh | Cousin | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 6, 2025 |
| James Alley Blues [Richard "Rabbit" Brown] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.3% | 1.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| Nobody Dies Anymore | Sukierae | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 13, 2016 |
| Panthers (Proving Death Again) | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Fake Fur Coat | Sukierae | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 22, 2019 |
| Losing End [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 19, 2021 |
| What's The World Got In Store | Being There | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 23, 2017 |
| Immigrant Song [Led Zeppelin] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 30, 2007 |
| Wait for Love | Sukierae | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 25, 2022 |
| Hearts Hard to Find | Cruel Country | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Let's Not Get Carried Away | Sky Blue Sky Tour EP | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Screen Door | No Depression | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 18, 2023 |
| An Empty Corner | Ode to Joy | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Blasting Fonda | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 29, 2017 |
| Country Song Upside-Down | Cruel Country | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 8, 2026 |
| Satan, Your Kingdom Must Come Down | March 16-20, 1992 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| U.S. Blues [Grateful Dead] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 30, 2025 |
| Walk Where He Walked | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 8, 2006 |
| All Across the World | Cruel Country | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 25, 2023 |
| If That's Alright | Still Feel Gone | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 14, 2014 |
| No Sense In Lovin' | Anodyne | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 27, 1995 |
| Don't You Honey Me | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 15, 2015 |
| Ambulance | Cruel Country | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Henry & The H Bombs [Mott The Hoople] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 30, 2012 |
| Political Science [Randy Newman] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 19, 2006 |
| The Good Part | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| A Robin or a Wren | Love Is the King | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Hazel | Sukierae | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 16, 2017 |
| Listen To Her Heart [Tom Petty] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 20, 1995 |
| Only The Lord Knows [Mavis Staples] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 16, 2017 |
| Reincarnation [Roger Miller] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 9, 2022 |
| Rising Red Lung | The Whole Love | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 19, 2012 |
| True Love Will Find You In the End [Daniel Johnston] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 29, 2017 |
| Who Were You Thinking Of [Texas Tornados] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 23, 1997 |
| Guess Again | Love Is the King | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Happy Birthday | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 3, 2013 | |
| Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow [Carole King] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 28, 1997 |
| I Shall Be Released [Bob Dylan] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 26, 2008 |
| Something In The Air [Thunderclap Newman] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 14, 2005 |
| Let's Hear It For Rock and Roll | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 28, 1995 | |
| Please Be Patient With Me | Sky Blue Sky | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Please Don't Let Me Be So Understood | Sukierae | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Sugar Baby [Dock Boggs] | Cover | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 20, 2006 |
| Thirteen [Alex Chilton (Big Star)] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 1, 2022 |
| Blue Eyed Soul | A.M. | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| Thank You Friends [Big Star] | Cover | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| Twilight Override | Twilight Override | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| (Don't Fear) The Reaper [Blue Öyster Cult] | Cover | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| Chinese Apple | Loose Fur | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 19, 2013 |
| Watch Me Fall | Still Feel Gone | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 31, 2012 |
| John Wesley Harding [Bob Dylan] | Cover | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 19, 2021 |
| Love Is for Love | Twilight Override | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Open Mind | The Whole Love | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 18, 2013 |
| Alone | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 | |
| Desert Bell | Sukierae | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 17, 2021 |
| Even I Can See | Love Is the King | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 1, 2025 |
| Everlasting Everything | Wilco (the album) | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Opaline | Love Is the King | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Parking Lot | Twilight Override | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| The Auld Triangle [Brendan Behan] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 6, 2007 |
| Honey Combed | Sukierae | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 24, 2015 |
| Levee | Cousin | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Cinnamon Girl [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 23, 2019 |
| Save It for Me | Love Is the King | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Broken Arrow [Buffalo Springfield] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 6, 2010 |
| Comment (If All Men Are Truly Brothers) [Charles Wright and the Watts 103rd St. Rhythm Band] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.