Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annihilation | Hot Sun Cool Shroud | 71% | 81% | 6 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| It's Just That Simple | A.M. | 71% | 81% | 6 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Cruel Country | Cruel Country | 72% | 85% | 6 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Hummingbird | A Ghost Is Born | 72% | 87% | 6 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Evicted | Cousin | 73% | 89% | 6 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Via Chicago | Summerteeth | 76% | 75% | 7 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Jesus, Etc. | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 79% | 89% | 7 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Kingpin | Being There | 82% | 43% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Forget The Flowers | Being There | 84% | 85% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Walken | Sky Blue Sky | 85% | 87% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| If I Ever Was a Child | Schmilco | 86% | 91% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Handshake Drugs | A Ghost Is Born | 92% | 92% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Bird Without a Tail/Base of My Skull | Cruel Country | 93% | 94% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| California Stars | Mermaid Avenue | 93% | 94% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Impossible Germany | Sky Blue Sky | 93% | 94% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.