Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ambulance | Cruel Country | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Androgynous [The Replacements] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Ça Plane Pour Moi [Plastic Bertrand] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Children of the Revolution [T. Rex] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Cold Hard World [Daniel Johnston] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Dawned On Me | The Whole Love | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Do Re Mi [Woody Guthrie] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 9, 2025 |
| Either Way | Sky Blue Sky | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Everlasting Everything | Wilco (the album) | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Evicted | Cousin | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Far, Far Away | Being There | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| Fat Bottomed Girls [Queen] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Funk #49 [James Gang] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 8, 2025 |
| God Save The Queen [Sex Pistols] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 11, 2025 |
| High on a Rocky Ledge [Moondog] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 8, 2025 |
| I Got Nightmares [Q65] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 18, 2026 |
| I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight [Richard and Linda Thompson] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Kiss [Prince] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| London Calling [The Clash] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Magnet [NRBQ] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Me and Jane Doe [Charlotte Gainsbourg] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| Mexico [Sammy Tweedy] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Ne Me Quitte Pas [Jacques Brel] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 14, 2026 |
| Needles in a Camel's Eye [Brian Eno] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| One By One | Mermaid Avenue | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| One Sunday Morning (Song For Jane Smiley's Boyfriend) | The Whole Love | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Passenger Side | A.M. | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Pecan Pie | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Please Be Patient With Me | Sky Blue Sky | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Radio King | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Side With The Seeds | Sky Blue Sky | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Sky Blue Sky | Sky Blue Sky | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Some Birds | Warm | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Spanish Bombs [The Clash] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Tell Me Something Good [Rufus] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| Tennessee Waltz [Redd Stewart] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2025 |
| The Ruling Class | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 | |
| This Time Tomorrow [The Kinks] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Walking The Cow [Daniel Johnston] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 12, 2025 |
| War Pigs [Black Sabbath] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Wedding Cake | Twilight Override | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Wish I Had Not Said That [J.J. Cale] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 9, 2025 |
| You Don't Love Me Yet [Roky Erickson] | Cover | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Dreamer In My Dreams | Being There | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Helpless [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 10, 2025 |
| I Am My Mother | Cruel Country | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| I Know What It's Like | Warm | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Jesus, Etc. | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Save It for Me | Love Is the King | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Too Real | Twilight Override | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| You And I | Wilco (the album) | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Country Song Upside-Down | Cruel Country | 1.2% | 6.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Story to Tell | Cruel Country | 1.2% | 6.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| A Lifetime to Find | Cruel Country | 1.6% | 8.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| A Robin or a Wren | Love Is the King | 1.6% | 8.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Guess Again | Love Is the King | 1.6% | 8.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Impossible Germany | Sky Blue Sky | 1.6% | 8.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| New Madrid | Anodyne | 1.6% | 8.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Please Tell My Brother | Weird Tales | 1.6% | 8.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Ain't It a Shame | Twilight Override | 2.0% | 10% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Evergreen | Warmer | 2.0% | 10% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| I Am Trying To Break Your Heart | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 2.0% | 10% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| After the Gold Rush [Neil Young] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 22, 2026 |
| Amber [311] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Dear Employer (The Reason I Quit) | Down With Wilco | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Effigy [Creedence Clearwater Revival] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Everyday People [Sly and the Family Stone] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 25, 2026 |
| I Couldn't Say It to Your Face [Arthur Russell] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| I Love Rock 'n' Roll [The Arrows] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 21, 2026 |
| Jump into the Fire [Harry Nilsson] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Little Hands [Alexander "Skip" Spence] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Loser [Beck] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Louie, Louie [Richard Berry] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Our Lips Are Sealed [The Go-Go's] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 21, 2026 |
| Plateau [Meat Puppets] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Queen [Perfume Genius] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Streets of Baltimore [Tompall Glaser/Harlan Howard] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| The Lark in the Morning [Traditional] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| The Long Cut | Anodyne | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 22, 2026 |
| Up on the Sun [Meat Puppets] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Willin' [Little Feat] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| You're No Good [Clint Ballard Jr.] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Amar Bharati | Twilight Override | 2.9% | 14% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| California Stars | Mermaid Avenue | 3.4% | 8.2% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| A Magazine Called Sunset | More Like The Moon EP | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| A Shot In The Arm | Summerteeth | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Ain't No Sunshine [Bill Withers] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 4, 2026 |
| Airline To Heaven | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Annihilation | Hot Sun Cool Shroud | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Are You Here for the Festival [Michael Hurley] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Capitol City | The Whole Love | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Casino Queen | A.M. | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Comment (If All Men Are Truly Brothers) [Charles Wright and the Watts 103rd St. Rhythm Band] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Country Disappeared | Wilco (the album) | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Everyone Hides | Ode to Joy | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Farewell Transmission [Songs: Ohia (Jason Molina)] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Ffunny Ffrends [Unknown Mortal Orchestra] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Friendship [Pops Staples] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Heavy Metal Drummer | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Hot Stuff [Donna Summer] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.