Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lou Reed Was My Babysitter | Twilight Override | 93% | 96% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Enough | Twilight Override | 93% | 94% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Feel Free | Twilight Override | 92% | 92% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Forever Never Ends | Twilight Override | 90% | 84% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| This Is How It Ends | Twilight Override | 90% | 80% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Family Ghost | Warmer | 89% | 76% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Love Is the King | Love Is the King | 84% | 51% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Caught Up in the Past | Twilight Override | 84% | 82% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Low Key | Sukierae | 83% | 80% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| One Tiny Flower | Twilight Override | 83% | 80% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Mirror | Twilight Override | 83% | 78% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| New Orleans | Twilight Override | 83% | 78% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Diamond Light Pt. 1 | Sukierae | 82% | 73% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Flowering | Sukierae | 82% | 73% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Out in the Dark | Twilight Override | 82% | 73% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| World Away | Sukierae | 82% | 73% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Cry Baby Cry | Twilight Override | 81% | 69% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Stray Cats in Spain | Twilight Override | 78% | 82% | 7 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Gwendolyn | Love Is the King | 75% | 67% | 7 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| No One's Moving On | Twilight Override | 75% | 67% | 7 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| KC Rain (No Wonder) | Twilight Override | 68% | 69% | 7 / 10 | 13 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Don't Forget | Warm | 60% | 33% | 8 / 10 | 10 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Love Is for Love | Twilight Override | 44% | 29% | 5 / 10 | 9 / 20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Having Been Is No Way to Be | Warm | 30% | 47% | 1 / 10 | 9 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Parking Lot | Twilight Override | 19% | 29% | 1 / 10 | 5 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Western Clear Skies | Twilight Override | 17% | 20% | 1 / 10 | 5 / 20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Sign of Life | Twilight Override | 14% | 20% | 1 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Betrayed | Twilight Override | 11% | 24% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| You Are Not Alone | 8.7% | 12% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 | |
| Half-Asleep | Love Is the King | 8.3% | 10% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| I'm Always In Love | Summerteeth | 7.9% | 8.2% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| I'm The Man Who Loves You | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 7.9% | 8.2% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Laminated Cat | Loose Fur | 7.9% | 8.2% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Better Song | Twilight Override | 7.5% | 6.1% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 5, 2026 |
| Throwaway Lines | Twilight Override | 7.5% | 6.1% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Acuff-Rose | Anodyne | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Handshake Drugs | A Ghost Is Born | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Over My Head (Everything Goes) | Twilight Override | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Remember The Mountain Bed | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Saddest Eyes | Twilight Override | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Sunlight Ends | Cousin | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Twilight Override | Twilight Override | 6.9% | 35% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| A Magazine Called Sunset | More Like The Moon EP | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| A Shot In The Arm | Summerteeth | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Ain't No Sunshine [Bill Withers] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 4, 2026 |
| Airline To Heaven | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Annihilation | Hot Sun Cool Shroud | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Are You Here for the Festival [Michael Hurley] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Capitol City | The Whole Love | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Casino Queen | A.M. | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Comment (If All Men Are Truly Brothers) [Charles Wright and the Watts 103rd St. Rhythm Band] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Country Disappeared | Wilco (the album) | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Everyone Hides | Ode to Joy | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Farewell Transmission [Songs: Ohia (Jason Molina)] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Ffunny Ffrends [Unknown Mortal Orchestra] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Friendship [Pops Staples] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Heavy Metal Drummer | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Hot Stuff [Donna Summer] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| I Can't Keep From Talking | Weird Tales | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| In Bloom [Nirvana] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Judy Just Left | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 | |
| Just A Kid | The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Kamera | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Kerosene [Big Black] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Kingpin | Being There | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Kiss an Angel Good Mornin' [Charley Pride] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Lotta Love [Neil Young] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Love and Not Love | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 | |
| Monday | Being There | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Muzzle Of Bees | A Ghost Is Born | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Portland Water [Michael Hurley] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Raise a Little Hell [Trooper] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 4, 2026 |
| Secret Door | Twilight Override | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Sonny Feeling | Wilco (the album) | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Spiders (Kidsmoke) | A Ghost Is Born | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Take Me Home, Country Roads [John Denver] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| The Wind Cries Mary [Jimi Hendrix] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Two Lips, Two Lungs and One Tongue [Nomeansno] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 5, 2026 |
| Victoria [The Kinks] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 5, 2026 |
| War On War | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Where Is My Mind? [Pixies] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| You Ain't Goin' Nowhere [Bob Dylan] | Cover | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| You Satellite | Star Wars | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| California Stars | Mermaid Avenue | 3.4% | 8.2% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Amar Bharati | Twilight Override | 2.9% | 14% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| After the Gold Rush [Neil Young] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 22, 2026 |
| Amber [311] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Dear Employer (The Reason I Quit) | Down With Wilco | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Effigy [Creedence Clearwater Revival] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Everyday People [Sly and the Family Stone] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 25, 2026 |
| I Couldn't Say It to Your Face [Arthur Russell] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| I Love Rock 'n' Roll [The Arrows] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 21, 2026 |
| Jump into the Fire [Harry Nilsson] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Little Hands [Alexander "Skip" Spence] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Loser [Beck] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Louie, Louie [Richard Berry] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Our Lips Are Sealed [The Go-Go's] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 21, 2026 |
| Plateau [Meat Puppets] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Queen [Perfume Genius] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Streets of Baltimore [Tompall Glaser/Harlan Howard] | Cover | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 11, 2026 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.