Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alone | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 | |
| Born Alone | The Whole Love | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Bright Leaves | Ode to Joy | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 2, 2023 |
| Cortez the Killer [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Cry All Day | Schmilco | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 2, 2023 |
| Deeper Down | Wilco (the album) | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Dreamer In My Dreams | Being There | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| ELT | Summerteeth | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Feed Of Man | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| From Far Away | Warm | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Hearts Hard to Find | Cruel Country | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Hesitation | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 2, 2025 | |
| I Must Be High | A.M. | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 2, 2023 |
| Just Say Goodbye | Schmilco | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Message From Mid-Bar | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 | |
| More Like The Moon | More Like The Moon EP | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Mystery Binds | Cruel Country | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 27, 2023 |
| Nothing'severgonnastandinmyway(again) | Summerteeth | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Outta Mind (Outta Sight) | Being There | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Pick Up The Change | A.M. | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| She's My Rock [Sharon K Dobbins] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 27, 2023 |
| Sunloathe | The Whole Love | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Tell Your Friends | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 | |
| Ten Dead | Cousin | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 28, 2023 |
| The Good Part | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| The Joke Explained | Star Wars | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 5, 2023 |
| Tomorrow Never Knows [The Beatles] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Tonight I'll Be Staying Here With You [Bob Dylan] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 27, 2023 |
| Dark Neon | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Far, Far Away | Being There | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 5, 2024 |
| Give Back The Key To My Heart [Doug Sahm] | Anodyne | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 3, 2023 |
| Hotel Arizona | Being There | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| New Madrid | Anodyne | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2026 |
| On And On And On | Sky Blue Sky | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Poor Places | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Reservations | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Sad Kind of Way | Cruel Country | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Say You Love Me | Hot Sun Cool Shroud | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 7, 2024 |
| Should've Been In Love | A.M. | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Someday Soon | Being There | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| Summer Teeth | Summerteeth | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 3, 2024 |
| Wilco (The Song) | Wilco (the album) | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Bob Dylan's 49th Beard | More Like The Moon EP | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| Just A Kid | The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Laminated Cat | Loose Fur | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| Someone Else's Song | Being There | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Someone to Lose | Schmilco | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 11, 2024 |
| Venus Stopped the Train | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 | |
| You Never Know | Wilco (the album) | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 19, 2025 |
| A Lifetime to Find | Cruel Country | 0.5% | 2.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 18, 2024 |
| Ashes Of American Flags | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 0.5% | 2.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Blue Eyed Soul | A.M. | 0.5% | 2.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| Can't Stand It | Summerteeth | 0.5% | 2.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Country Disappeared | Wilco (the album) | 0.5% | 2.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 20, 2025 |
| Kicking Television | A Ghost Is Born | 0.5% | 2.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Sky Blue Sky | Sky Blue Sky | 0.5% | 2.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Too Far Apart | A.M. | 0.5% | 2.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| A Magazine Called Sunset | More Like The Moon EP | 0.6% | 3.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Camera | More Like The Moon EP | 0.6% | 3.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Let's Not Get Carried Away | Sky Blue Sky Tour EP | 0.6% | 3.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Many Worlds | Cruel Country | 0.6% | 3.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Tired of Taking It Out on You | Cruel Country | 0.6% | 3.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 20, 2025 |
| King of You | Star Wars | 0.7% | 3.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Less Than You Think | A Ghost Is Born | 0.7% | 3.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 22, 2025 |
| Passenger Side | A.M. | 0.7% | 3.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Hints | Cruel Country | 0.8% | 4.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 6, 2025 |
| One Sunday Morning (Song For Jane Smiley's Boyfriend) | The Whole Love | 0.8% | 4.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Panthers (Proving Death Again) | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.8% | 4.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Sunlight Ends | Cousin | 0.8% | 4.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 8, 2023 |
| Casino Queen | A.M. | 1.0% | 4.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Red-Eyed And Blue | Being There | 1.0% | 4.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Cold Slope | Star Wars | 1.1% | 5.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| How To Fight Loneliness | Summerteeth | 1.1% | 5.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 9, 2025 |
| I'll Fight | Wilco (the album) | 1.1% | 5.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 30, 2025 |
| What Light | Sky Blue Sky | 1.1% | 5.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Pot Kettle Black | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 1.2% | 6.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 27, 2025 |
| Soldier Child | Cousin | 1.2% | 6.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 5, 2023 |
| U.S. Blues [Grateful Dead] | Cover | 1.3% | 6.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 30, 2025 |
| I'm A Wheel | A Ghost Is Born | 1.4% | 7.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| Levee | Cousin | 1.6% | 7.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| I Heard You Looking [Yo La Tengo] | Cover | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| She's A Jar | Summerteeth | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 6, 2026 |
| Hell Is Chrome | A Ghost Is Born | 2.2% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Muzzle Of Bees | A Ghost Is Born | 2.3% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 1, 2026 |
| Dawned On Me | The Whole Love | 2.6% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Monday | Being There | 2.8% | 14% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 1, 2026 |
| Sunken Treasure | Being There | 3.4% | 17% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 23, 2026 |
| At Least That's What You Said | A Ghost Is Born | 3.6% | 18% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 20, 2025 |
| Pittsburgh | Cousin | 3.7% | 19% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 6, 2025 |
| Story to Tell | Cruel Country | 3.7% | 19% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Country Song Upside-Down | Cruel Country | 4.3% | 4.2% | 0 / 10 | 2 / 20 | May 8, 2026 |
| Wishful Thinking | A Ghost Is Born | 4.4% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 5, 2026 |
| Misunderstood | Being There | 4.4% | 22% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Cousin | Cousin | 4.6% | 23% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 22, 2024 |
| Infinite Surprise | Cousin | 4.7% | 23% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Quiet Amplifier | Ode to Joy | 4.8% | 24% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 1, 2026 |
| The Universe | Cruel Country | 4.8% | 6.6% | 0 / 10 | 2 / 20 | May 8, 2026 |
| Random Name Generator | Star Wars | 4.9% | 25% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Meant to Be | Cousin | 6.1% | 31% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Airline To Heaven | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.