Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
Showing Since Hot Sun Cool Shroud (Jun 2024) Wilco 158 songs · 98
setlisted shows in scope
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alone | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 | |
| Born Alone | The Whole Love | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Cortez the Killer [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Deeper Down | Wilco (the album) | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Dreamer In My Dreams | Being There | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| ELT | Summerteeth | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Far, Far Away | Being There | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 5, 2024 |
| Feed Of Man | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| From Far Away | Warm | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Hearts Hard to Find | Cruel Country | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Hesitation | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 2, 2025 | |
| Just Say Goodbye | Schmilco | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Message From Mid-Bar | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 | |
| More Like The Moon | More Like The Moon EP | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| New Madrid | Anodyne | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2026 |
| Nothing'severgonnastandinmyway(again) | Summerteeth | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Outta Mind (Outta Sight) | Being There | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Pick Up The Change | A.M. | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| Pittsburgh | Cousin | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 6, 2025 |
| Someday Soon | Being There | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| Summer Teeth | Summerteeth | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 3, 2024 |
| Sunloathe | The Whole Love | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Tell Your Friends | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 | |
| The Good Part | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Tomorrow Never Knows [The Beatles] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Wilco (The Song) | Wilco (the album) | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| You Never Know | Wilco (the album) | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 19, 2025 |
| Ashes Of American Flags | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Can't Stand It | Summerteeth | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Dark Neon | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Hotel Arizona | Being There | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Levee | Cousin | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| On And On And On | Sky Blue Sky | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Poor Places | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Red-Eyed And Blue | Being There | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Reservations | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Sad Kind of Way | Cruel Country | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Say You Love Me | Hot Sun Cool Shroud | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 7, 2024 |
| Should've Been In Love | A.M. | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Someone to Lose | Schmilco | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 11, 2024 |
| Bob Dylan's 49th Beard | More Like The Moon EP | 0.6% | 3.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| I'll Fight | Wilco (the album) | 0.6% | 3.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 30, 2025 |
| Just A Kid | The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie | 0.6% | 3.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Laminated Cat | Loose Fur | 0.6% | 3.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| Someone Else's Song | Being There | 0.6% | 3.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Tired of Taking It Out on You | Cruel Country | 0.6% | 3.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 20, 2025 |
| Too Far Apart | A.M. | 0.6% | 3.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Venus Stopped the Train | 0.6% | 3.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 | |
| A Magazine Called Sunset | More Like The Moon EP | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Blue Eyed Soul | A.M. | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| Country Disappeared | Wilco (the album) | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 20, 2025 |
| Dawned On Me | The Whole Love | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| How To Fight Loneliness | Summerteeth | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 9, 2025 |
| Infinite Surprise | Cousin | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Kicking Television | A Ghost Is Born | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Many Worlds | Cruel Country | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Misunderstood | Being There | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Passenger Side | A.M. | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Sky Blue Sky | Sky Blue Sky | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Camera | More Like The Moon EP | 1.0% | 5.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Casino Queen | A.M. | 1.0% | 5.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Hell Is Chrome | A Ghost Is Born | 1.0% | 5.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Hints | Cruel Country | 1.0% | 5.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 6, 2025 |
| I'm A Wheel | A Ghost Is Born | 1.0% | 5.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| Let's Not Get Carried Away | Sky Blue Sky Tour EP | 1.0% | 5.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| King of You | Star Wars | 1.2% | 6.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Less Than You Think | A Ghost Is Born | 1.2% | 6.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 22, 2025 |
| What Light | Sky Blue Sky | 1.2% | 6.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| One Sunday Morning (Song For Jane Smiley's Boyfriend) | The Whole Love | 1.4% | 7.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Panthers (Proving Death Again) | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 1.4% | 7.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Cold Slope | Star Wars | 1.8% | 9.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Pot Kettle Black | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 1.8% | 9.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 27, 2025 |
| I Heard You Looking [Yo La Tengo] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Monday | Being There | 2.0% | 10% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 1, 2026 |
| Muzzle Of Bees | A Ghost Is Born | 2.2% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 1, 2026 |
| U.S. Blues [Grateful Dead] | Cover | 2.2% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 30, 2025 |
| She's A Jar | Summerteeth | 2.4% | 3.1% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 6, 2026 |
| A Shot In The Arm | Summerteeth | 2.7% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| I Am My Mother | Cruel Country | 2.7% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 16, 2025 |
| Random Name Generator | Star Wars | 3.1% | 15% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| At Least That's What You Said | A Ghost Is Born | 3.7% | 18% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 20, 2025 |
| Story to Tell | Cruel Country | 4.1% | 20% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Sunken Treasure | Being There | 4.5% | 22% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Country Song Upside-Down | Cruel Country | 4.9% | 7.1% | 0 / 10 | 2 / 20 | May 8, 2026 |
| Meant to Be | Cousin | 5.1% | 26% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| The Universe | Cruel Country | 5.5% | 10% | 0 / 10 | 2 / 20 | May 8, 2026 |
| Wishful Thinking | A Ghost Is Born | 6.2% | 22% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 5, 2026 |
| Airline To Heaven | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.5% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| All You Fascists | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.5% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Another Man's Done Gone [Woody Guthrie] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 6.5% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| At My Window Sad And Lonely | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Birds And Ships | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Flawed Men | 6.5% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 | |
| Give Me a Nail | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 3 | 6.5% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Guess I Planted | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Hoodoo Voodoo | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| In The Street [Big Star] | Cover | 6.5% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Ingrid Bergman | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| My Flying Saucer | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.5% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| One By One | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.