Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radio King | Down By The Old Mainstream | 3.5% | 18% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| I Know What It's Like | Warm | 3.4% | 17% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Impossible Germany | Sky Blue Sky | 3.4% | 17% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Not For The Season | 3.4% | 17% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 4, 2011 | |
| Wait Up | March 16-20, 1992 | 3.4% | 17% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 22, 2019 |
| Hesitating Beauty | Mermaid Avenue | 3.3% | 17% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 1, 2021 |
| Theologians | A Ghost Is Born | 3.2% | 16% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 23, 2019 |
| Gun | Still Feel Gone | 3.1% | 16% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Summer Teeth | Summerteeth | 3.0% | 15% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 13, 2024 |
| (Was I) In Your Dreams | Being There | 2.9% | 15% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2013 |
| Lost Love | Weird Tales | 2.9% | 15% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 23, 2019 |
| Pecan Pie | Down By The Old Mainstream | 2.8% | 14% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| The Long Cut | Anodyne | 2.7% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 22, 2026 |
| Forget The Flowers | Being There | 2.6% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 23, 2019 |
| You And I | Wilco (the album) | 2.6% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Ashes Of American Flags | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 2.5% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 15, 2024 |
| I Got You (At The End Of The Century) | Being There | 2.5% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 13, 2024 |
| The Late Greats | A Ghost Is Born | 2.5% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2019 |
| ELT | Summerteeth | 2.3% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Far, Far Away | Being There | 2.3% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| Guaranteed | Warmer | 2.3% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| We've Been Had | Anodyne | 2.3% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 24, 2023 |
| Dear Employer (The Reason I Quit) | Down With Wilco | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Bull Black Nova | Wilco (the album) | 2.1% | 10% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 26, 2022 |
| One By One | Mermaid Avenue | 2.1% | 10% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Someone Else's Song | Being There | 2.1% | 10% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 14, 2024 |
| The Thanks I Get | Sky Blue Sky Tour EP | 2.1% | 10% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Plateau [Meat Puppets] | Cover | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Box Full Of Letters | A.M. | 1.9% | 9.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Dawned On Me | The Whole Love | 1.9% | 9.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| After the Gold Rush [Neil Young] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 22, 2026 |
| Amber [311] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Effigy [Creedence Clearwater Revival] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Everyday People [Sly and the Family Stone] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 25, 2026 |
| I Couldn't Say It to Your Face [Arthur Russell] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| I Love Rock 'n' Roll [The Arrows] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 21, 2026 |
| Jump into the Fire [Harry Nilsson] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Little Hands [Alexander "Skip" Spence] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Loser [Beck] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Louie, Louie [Richard Berry] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Our Lips Are Sealed [The Go-Go's] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 21, 2026 |
| Queen [Perfume Genius] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Streets of Baltimore [Tompall Glaser/Harlan Howard] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| The Lark in the Morning [Traditional] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Up on the Sun [Meat Puppets] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Willin' [Little Feat] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| You're No Good [Clint Ballard Jr.] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Black Eye | March 16-20, 1992 | 1.8% | 8.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 14, 2014 |
| Someday Some Morning Sometime | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 1.8% | 8.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Candyfloss | Summerteeth | 1.7% | 8.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Dreamer In My Dreams | Being There | 1.7% | 8.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Blasting Fonda | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 1.6% | 7.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 29, 2017 |
| Cars Can't Escape | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 1.6% | 7.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Pick Up The Change | A.M. | 1.6% | 7.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Someday Soon | Being There | 1.6% | 7.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 7, 2016 |
| Born Alone | The Whole Love | 1.5% | 7.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 19, 2019 |
| When The Roses Bloom Again | Chelsea Walls | 1.5% | 7.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| A Robin or a Wren | Love Is the King | 1.4% | 7.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Hoodoo Voodoo | Mermaid Avenue | 1.4% | 7.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Guess Again | Love Is the King | 1.3% | 6.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 11, 2026 |
| In A Future Age | Summerteeth | 1.3% | 6.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 29, 2017 |
| Reservations | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 1.3% | 6.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 1, 2022 |
| A Lifetime to Find | Cruel Country | 1.3% | 6.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Red-Eyed And Blue | Being There | 1.3% | 6.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 29, 2017 |
| Story to Tell | Cruel Country | 1.2% | 6.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Ambulance | Cruel Country | 1.1% | 5.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Please Be Patient With Me | Sky Blue Sky | 1.1% | 5.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| The Lonely 1 | Being There | 1.1% | 5.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 23, 2023 |
| Twilight Override | Twilight Override | 1.1% | 5.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Be Not So Fearful [Bill Fay] | Cover | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| I Am My Mother | Cruel Country | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| One Sunday Morning (Song For Jane Smiley's Boyfriend) | The Whole Love | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| One Wing | Wilco (the album) | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Christ For President | Mermaid Avenue | 1.0% | 5.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 13, 2016 |
| Should've Been In Love | A.M. | 1.0% | 5.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| An Empty Corner | Ode to Joy | 0.9% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Chinese Apple | Loose Fur | 0.9% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 19, 2013 |
| Even I Can See | Love Is the King | 0.9% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 1, 2025 |
| John Wesley Harding [Bob Dylan] | Cover | 0.9% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 19, 2021 |
| Locator | Schmilco | 0.9% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 1, 2022 |
| Opaline | Love Is the King | 0.9% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Pieholden Suite | Summerteeth | 0.9% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 26, 2022 |
| Thirteen [Alex Chilton (Big Star)] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.9% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 1, 2022 |
| What Light | Sky Blue Sky | 0.9% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Country Song Upside-Down | Cruel Country | 0.9% | 4.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Normal American Kids | Schmilco | 0.9% | 4.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 6, 2025 |
| Satan, Your Kingdom Must Come Down | March 16-20, 1992 | 0.9% | 4.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 1, 2024 |
| Sky Blue Sky | Sky Blue Sky | 0.9% | 4.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| The Universe | Cruel Country | 0.9% | 4.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 1, 2025 |
| Alone | 0.8% | 4.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 26, 2022 | |
| Everlasting Everything | Wilco (the album) | 0.8% | 4.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Love Like a Wire [Diane Izzo] | Cover | 0.8% | 4.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2022 |
| On And On And On | Sky Blue Sky | 0.8% | 4.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Save It for Me | Love Is the King | 0.8% | 4.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Screen Door | No Depression | 0.8% | 4.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 18, 2023 |
| Either Way | Sky Blue Sky | 0.7% | 3.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 24, 2025 |
| I'm A Wheel | A Ghost Is Born | 0.7% | 3.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 23, 2019 |
| Sugar Baby [Dock Boggs] | Cover | 0.7% | 3.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 20, 2006 |
| Walken | Sky Blue Sky | 0.7% | 3.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 30, 2012 |
| Give Back The Key To My Heart [Doug Sahm] | Anodyne | 0.7% | 3.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2022 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.