Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Long Time Ago | 2.7% | 4.5% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 8, 2015 | |
| Casino Queen | A.M. | 2.7% | 4.5% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 11, 2015 |
| Forget The Flowers | Being There | 2.7% | 4.5% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 15, 2015 |
| What Light | Sky Blue Sky | 2.7% | 4.5% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 7, 2015 |
| Be Not So Fearful [Bill Fay] | Cover | 3.6% | 9.1% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 12, 2015 |
| Slow Love | Sukierae | 3.6% | 9.1% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 6, 2015 |
| You And I | Wilco (the album) | 5.3% | 9.1% | 0 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Mar 15, 2015 |
| ...And Then You Cut It in Half | Warmer | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Ashes Of American Flags | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Bombs Above | Warm | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Dec 1, 2018 |
| Cars Can't Escape | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 28, 2015 |
| Empty Head | Warmer | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Everybody Knows This Is Nowhere | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 | |
| Guaranteed | Warmer | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| How Hard It Is for a Desert to Die | Warm | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Dec 1, 2018 |
| I Got You (At The End Of The Century) | Being There | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 22, 2015 |
| I Wanna Be Your Mama Again [Doug Sahm] | Cover | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Laminated Cat | Loose Fur | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 30, 2016 |
| Loud, Loud, Loud [Aphrodite's Child] | Cover | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 30, 2015 |
| Magnetized | Star Wars | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Muzzle Of Bees | A Ghost Is Born | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 24, 2015 |
| Queen Bitch [David Bowie] | Cover | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Solitaire | Wilco (the album) | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 25, 2015 |
| Spiders (Kidsmoke) | A Ghost Is Born | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Ten Sentences | Warmer | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| The Late Greats | A Ghost Is Born | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 28, 2015 |
| Warm (When the Sun Has Died) | Warm | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Dec 1, 2018 |
| We've Been Had | Anodyne | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Mar 22, 2015 |
| Hotel Arizona | Being There | 9.8% | 9.1% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Mar 25, 2015 |
| I'm A Wheel | A Ghost Is Born | 9.8% | 9.1% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Mar 24, 2015 |
| Lost Love | Weird Tales | 9.8% | 9.1% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Mar 22, 2015 |
| Gun | Still Feel Gone | 12% | 14% | 1 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Mar 28, 2015 |
| Radio King | Down By The Old Mainstream | 12% | 14% | 1 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Mar 25, 2015 |
| Don't Forget | Warm | 14% | 9.1% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Evergreen | Warmer | 14% | 9.1% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Family Ghost | Warmer | 14% | 9.1% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Having Been Is No Way to Be | Warm | 14% | 9.1% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| I Know What It's Like | Warm | 14% | 9.1% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Let's Go Rain | Warm | 14% | 9.1% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Orphan | Warmer | 14% | 9.1% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Some Birds | Warm | 14% | 9.1% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Thirteen [Alex Chilton (Big Star)] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 14% | 9.1% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| True Love Will Find You In the End [Daniel Johnston] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 14% | 9.1% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Mar 30, 2015 |
| One By One | Mermaid Avenue | 17% | 14% | 2 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Mar 30, 2015 |
| The Ruling Class | 17% | 14% | 2 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 | |
| God [John Lennon] | Cover | 20% | 18% | 2 / 10 | 4 / 20 | Mar 28, 2015 |
| Heavy Metal Drummer | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 20% | 18% | 2 / 10 | 4 / 20 | Mar 25, 2015 |
| Misunderstood | Being There | 20% | 18% | 2 / 10 | 4 / 20 | Mar 28, 2015 |
| Desert Bell | Sukierae | 20% | 27% | 1 / 10 | 6 / 20 | Mar 24, 2015 |
| Honey Combed | Sukierae | 20% | 27% | 1 / 10 | 6 / 20 | Mar 24, 2015 |
| Passenger Side | A.M. | 24% | 32% | 2 / 10 | 5 / 20 | Mar 28, 2015 |
| New Madrid | Anodyne | 29% | 41% | 2 / 10 | 7 / 20 | Mar 25, 2015 |
| Remember The Mountain Bed | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 34% | 45% | 2 / 10 | 9 / 20 | Dec 1, 2018 |
| A Shot In The Arm | Summerteeth | 34% | 27% | 4 / 10 | 6 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Born Alone | The Whole Love | 35% | 36% | 3 / 10 | 8 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Whole Love | The Whole Love | 38% | 27% | 5 / 10 | 6 / 20 | Mar 30, 2015 |
| You Are Not Alone | 39% | 36% | 4 / 10 | 8 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 | |
| Please Tell My Brother | Weird Tales | 40% | 41% | 4 / 10 | 8 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Via Chicago | Summerteeth | 47% | 45% | 5 / 10 | 9 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Jesus, Etc. | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 49% | 45% | 5 / 10 | 10 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| I'm The Man Who Loves You | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 50% | 50% | 5 / 10 | 10 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Give Back The Key To My Heart [Doug Sahm] | Anodyne | 54% | 68% | 4 / 10 | 13 / 20 | Dec 1, 2018 |
| One Wing | Wilco (the album) | 62% | 55% | 7 / 10 | 11 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Hummingbird | A Ghost Is Born | 67% | 64% | 7 / 10 | 13 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| I Am Trying To Break Your Heart | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 76% | 82% | 7 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Please Don't Let Me Be So Understood | Sukierae | 76% | 82% | 7 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Nobody Dies Anymore | Sukierae | 79% | 86% | 7 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| California Stars | Mermaid Avenue | 83% | 86% | 8 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Dec 1, 2018 |
| Only The Lord Knows [Mavis Staples] | Cover | 83% | 86% | 8 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Hazel | Sukierae | 85% | 86% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| High as Hello | Sukierae | 85% | 86% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Wait for Love | Sukierae | 85% | 86% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Diamond Light Pt. 1 | Sukierae | 86% | 91% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Fake Fur Coat | Sukierae | 86% | 91% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Flowering | Sukierae | 93% | 95% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Love Like a Wire [Diane Izzo] | Cover | 93% | 95% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| New Moon | Sukierae | 93% | 95% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Losing End [Neil Young] | Cover | 96% | 91% | 10 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Low Key | Sukierae | 100% | 100% | 10 / 10 | 20 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| Summer Noon | Sukierae | 100% | 100% | 10 / 10 | 20 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
| World Away | Sukierae | 100% | 100% | 10 / 10 | 20 / 20 | Jan 20, 2020 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.