Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where Is My Mind? [Pixies] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Willin' [Little Feat] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Wish I Had Not Said That [J.J. Cale] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 9, 2025 |
| Won't Be Coming Home | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Yesterday Cried | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| You Don't Love Me Yet [Roky Erickson] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 11, 2025 |
| You're No Good [Clint Ballard Jr.] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| A Robin or a Wren | Love Is the King | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Guess Again | Love Is the King | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Meant to Be | Cousin | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Over My Head (Everything Goes) | Twilight Override | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Passenger Side | A.M. | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Pecan Pie | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Radio King | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Sky Blue Sky | Sky Blue Sky | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Story to Tell | Cruel Country | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Too Real | Twilight Override | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| What Light | Sky Blue Sky | 0.5% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Better Song | Twilight Override | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 5, 2026 |
| Dreamer In My Dreams | Being There | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Evergreen | Warmer | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| New Madrid | Anodyne | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2026 |
| Quiet Amplifier | Ode to Joy | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 1, 2026 |
| Random Name Generator | Star Wars | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Wishful Thinking | A Ghost Is Born | 1.0% | 5.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 5, 2026 |
| Ain't It a Shame | Twilight Override | 1.3% | 6.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Side With The Seeds | Sky Blue Sky | 1.3% | 6.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Country Song Upside-Down | Cruel Country | 1.6% | 7.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 8, 2026 |
| Amar Bharati | Twilight Override | 1.8% | 9.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| A Shot In The Arm | Summerteeth | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Capitol City | The Whole Love | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Casino Queen | A.M. | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Country Disappeared | Wilco (the album) | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| I Heard You Looking [Yo La Tengo] | Cover | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Judy Just Left | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 | |
| Secret Door | Twilight Override | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| A Magazine Called Sunset | More Like The Moon EP | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Acuff-Rose | Anodyne | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| I Can't Keep From Talking | Weird Tales | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Just A Kid | The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Laminated Cat | Loose Fur | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Muzzle Of Bees | A Ghost Is Born | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Saddest Eyes | Twilight Override | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Sunlight Ends | Cousin | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Monday | Being There | 2.5% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Throwaway Lines | Twilight Override | 2.5% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| You Are Not Alone | 2.5% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 | |
| Sign of Life | Twilight Override | 2.6% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| The Universe | Cruel Country | 2.6% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 8, 2026 |
| Western Clear Skies | Twilight Override | 2.6% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Half-Asleep | Love Is the King | 3.0% | 6.5% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Love Is for Love | Twilight Override | 3.4% | 17% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Parking Lot | Twilight Override | 3.6% | 18% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Twilight Override | Twilight Override | 4.4% | 22% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Betrayed | Twilight Override | 4.9% | 16% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| One Wing | Wilco (the album) | 5.1% | 7.8% | 0 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Having Been Is No Way to Be | Warm | 5.5% | 27% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| You Are My Face | Sky Blue Sky | 6.3% | 5.2% | 0 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| All You Fascists | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Another Man's Done Gone [Woody Guthrie] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| At My Window Sad And Lonely | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Birds And Ships | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Flawed Men | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 | |
| Friendship [Pops Staples] | Cover | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Give Me a Nail | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 3 | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Guess I Planted | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Hoodoo Voodoo | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Hot Stuff [Donna Summer] | Cover | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| In The Street [Big Star] | Cover | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Ingrid Bergman | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| My Flying Saucer | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Say You Miss Me | Being There | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| She Came Along To Me | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Stetson Kennedy | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Take Me Home, Country Roads [John Denver] | Cover | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| The Jolly Banker [Woody Guthrie] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| The Unwelcome Guest | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| This Land Is Your Land [Woody Guthrie] | Cover | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Walt Whitman's Niece | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Way Over Yonder In The Minor Key | Mermaid Avenue | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| When The Roses Bloom Again | Chelsea Walls | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| You Ain't Goin' Nowhere [Bob Dylan] | Cover | 6.5% | 1.3% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| One By One | Mermaid Avenue | 6.8% | 2.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Secret Of The Sea | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.8% | 2.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Hesitating Beauty | Mermaid Avenue | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Art of Almost | The Whole Love | 7.3% | 5.2% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Gwendolyn | Love Is the King | 7.5% | 38% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Airline To Heaven | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 8.5% | 2.6% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Remember The Mountain Bed | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 8.8% | 3.9% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| You Satellite | Star Wars | 8.8% | 3.9% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Stray Cats in Spain | Twilight Override | 9.9% | 49% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Don't Forget | Warm | 10% | 19% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Whole Love | The Whole Love | 12% | 10% | 1 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Love Is Everywhere (Beware) | Ode to Joy | 13% | 14% | 1 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Candyfloss | Summerteeth | 14% | 6.5% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Love Is the King | Love Is the King | 14% | 32% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Shouldn't Be Ashamed | A.M. | 15% | 7.8% | 1 / 10 | 5 / 20 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| No One's Moving On | Twilight Override | 15% | 43% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Cry Baby Cry | Twilight Override | 15% | 44% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Flowering | Sukierae | 15% | 44% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.