Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Handshake Drugs | A Ghost Is Born | 76% | 50% | 8 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| California Stars | Mermaid Avenue | 74% | 52% | 8 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Impossible Germany | Sky Blue Sky | 74% | 52% | 8 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Bird Without a Tail/Base of My Skull | Cruel Country | 74% | 49% | 8 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Kingpin | Being There | 70% | 23% | 8 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| If I Ever Was a Child | Schmilco | 67% | 47% | 7 / 10 | 15 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Walken | Sky Blue Sky | 67% | 45% | 7 / 10 | 15 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Forget The Flowers | Being There | 66% | 44% | 7 / 10 | 15 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Jesus, Etc. | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 61% | 48% | 6 / 10 | 14 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Via Chicago | Summerteeth | 59% | 39% | 6 / 10 | 14 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| I'm The Man Who Loves You | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 56% | 45% | 5 / 10 | 14 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Annihilation | Hot Sun Cool Shroud | 56% | 43% | 5 / 10 | 14 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| I'm Always In Love | Summerteeth | 55% | 42% | 5 / 10 | 14 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Evicted | Cousin | 55% | 47% | 5 / 10 | 13 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Hummingbird | A Ghost Is Born | 54% | 45% | 5 / 10 | 13 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Cruel Country | Cruel Country | 54% | 44% | 5 / 10 | 13 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| It's Just That Simple | A.M. | 54% | 42% | 5 / 10 | 13 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Either Way | Sky Blue Sky | 53% | 46% | 5 / 10 | 12 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Heavy Metal Drummer | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 49% | 42% | 4 / 10 | 13 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Falling Apart (Right Now) | Cruel Country | 47% | 41% | 4 / 10 | 12 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| I Got You (At The End Of The Century) | Being There | 46% | 36% | 4 / 10 | 12 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| War On War | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 46% | 24% | 4 / 10 | 13 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Everyone Hides | Ode to Joy | 45% | 17% | 5 / 10 | 11 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| I Am Trying To Break Your Heart | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 43% | 31% | 4 / 10 | 11 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Hate It Here | Sky Blue Sky | 41% | 34% | 4 / 10 | 9 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Box Full Of Letters | A.M. | 41% | 39% | 3 / 10 | 11 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| The Late Greats | A Ghost Is Born | 36% | 34% | 3 / 10 | 9 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Losing Traction | 32% | 4.9% | 5 / 10 | 5 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 | |
| Spiders (Kidsmoke) | A Ghost Is Born | 32% | 34% | 2 / 10 | 9 / 20 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Christ For President | Mermaid Avenue | 26% | 3.9% | 4 / 10 | 4 / 20 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Kamera | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 26% | 8.7% | 3 / 10 | 6 / 20 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Outtasite (Outta Mind) | Being There | 24% | 17% | 3 / 10 | 4 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| You And I | Wilco (the album) | 23% | 23% | 1 / 10 | 8 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Company In My Back | A Ghost Is Born | 21% | 9.7% | 3 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Theologians | A Ghost Is Born | 18% | 24% | 1 / 10 | 5 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Lou Reed Was My Babysitter | Twilight Override | 17% | 46% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Enough | Twilight Override | 17% | 45% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Feel Free | Twilight Override | 17% | 44% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Forever Never Ends | Twilight Override | 16% | 40% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| This Is How It Ends | Twilight Override | 16% | 38% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Family Ghost | Warmer | 15% | 36% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Sonny Feeling | Wilco (the album) | 15% | 3.9% | 2 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Shouldn't Be Ashamed | A.M. | 15% | 6.8% | 1 / 10 | 5 / 20 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| KC Rain (No Wonder) | Twilight Override | 15% | 33% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Caught Up in the Past | Twilight Override | 14% | 39% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Low Key | Sukierae | 14% | 38% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| One Tiny Flower | Twilight Override | 14% | 38% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Mirror | Twilight Override | 14% | 37% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| New Orleans | Twilight Override | 14% | 37% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Candyfloss | Summerteeth | 13% | 4.9% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Love Is Everywhere (Beware) | Ode to Joy | 13% | 18% | 1 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Diamond Light Pt. 1 | Sukierae | 13% | 35% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Flowering | Sukierae | 13% | 35% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Out in the Dark | Twilight Override | 13% | 35% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| World Away | Sukierae | 13% | 35% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Love Is the King | Love Is the King | 13% | 24% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Cry Baby Cry | Twilight Override | 13% | 33% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| No One's Moving On | Twilight Override | 13% | 32% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Whole Love | The Whole Love | 12% | 13% | 1 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Hesitating Beauty | Mermaid Avenue | 10% | 20% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Don't Forget | Warm | 9.4% | 16% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Remember The Mountain Bed | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 8.6% | 2.9% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| You Satellite | Star Wars | 8.6% | 2.9% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Airline To Heaven | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 8.4% | 1.9% | 1 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Art of Almost | The Whole Love | 8.4% | 11% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| You Are My Face | Sky Blue Sky | 7.8% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Stray Cats in Spain | Twilight Override | 7.8% | 39% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| One By One | Mermaid Avenue | 6.6% | 1.9% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Secret Of The Sea | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.6% | 1.9% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| All You Fascists | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Another Man's Done Gone [Woody Guthrie] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| At My Window Sad And Lonely | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Birds And Ships | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Flawed Men | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 | |
| Friendship [Pops Staples] | Cover | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Give Me a Nail | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 3 | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Guess I Planted | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Hoodoo Voodoo | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Hot Stuff [Donna Summer] | Cover | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| In The Street [Big Star] | Cover | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Ingrid Bergman | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| My Flying Saucer | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Say You Miss Me | Being There | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| She Came Along To Me | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Stetson Kennedy | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Take Me Home, Country Roads [John Denver] | Cover | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| The Jolly Banker [Woody Guthrie] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| The Unwelcome Guest | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| This Land Is Your Land [Woody Guthrie] | Cover | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Walt Whitman's Niece | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Way Over Yonder In The Minor Key | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| When The Roses Bloom Again | Chelsea Walls | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| You Ain't Goin' Nowhere [Bob Dylan] | Cover | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Gwendolyn | Love Is the King | 6.4% | 32% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| One Wing | Wilco (the album) | 4.7% | 5.8% | 0 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Having Been Is No Way to Be | Warm | 4.5% | 22% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Story to Tell | Cruel Country | 4.5% | 22% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Betrayed | Twilight Override | 4.1% | 12% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Side With The Seeds | Sky Blue Sky | 3.7% | 18% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Sunken Treasure | Being There | 3.3% | 17% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 23, 2026 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.