Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muzzle Of Bees | A Ghost Is Born | 5.0% | 16% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Sunken Treasure | Being There | 4.2% | 21% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 23, 2026 |
| New Madrid | Anodyne | 4.1% | 20% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2026 |
| Poor Places | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 4.0% | 20% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Dawned On Me | The Whole Love | 3.7% | 19% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| I'm A Wheel | A Ghost Is Born | 3.7% | 19% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| Reservations | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 3.7% | 18% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| She's A Jar | Summerteeth | 3.6% | 18% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 6, 2026 |
| Ashes Of American Flags | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 3.3% | 17% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Bull Black Nova | Wilco (the album) | 3.2% | 16% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 28, 2023 |
| Acuff-Rose | Anodyne | 3.2% | 7.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Laminated Cat | Loose Fur | 3.2% | 7.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Random Name Generator | Star Wars | 3.0% | 15% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Side With The Seeds | Sky Blue Sky | 3.0% | 15% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Born Alone | The Whole Love | 2.9% | 14% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Pot Kettle Black | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 2.7% | 14% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 27, 2025 |
| A Magazine Called Sunset | More Like The Moon EP | 2.7% | 4.5% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| How To Fight Loneliness | Summerteeth | 2.6% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 9, 2025 |
| I Must Be High | A.M. | 2.4% | 12% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 2, 2023 |
| You Are Not Alone | 2.3% | 2.9% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 | |
| Capitol City | The Whole Love | 2.3% | 2.8% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Country Disappeared | Wilco (the album) | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| I Can't Keep From Talking | Weird Tales | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Just A Kid | The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Far, Far Away | Being There | 1.9% | 9.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| Half-Asleep | Love Is the King | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Sunlight Ends | Cousin | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 30, 2026 |
| Betrayed | Twilight Override | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Hotel Arizona | Being There | 1.8% | 9.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| I Might | The Whole Love | 1.8% | 9.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 21, 2020 |
| We've Been Had | Anodyne | 1.8% | 9.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 24, 2023 |
| Radio Cure | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 1.8% | 9.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 24, 2022 |
| Throwaway Lines | Twilight Override | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Saddest Eyes | Twilight Override | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| I Heard You Looking [Yo La Tengo] | Cover | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Judy Just Left | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 | |
| Secret Door | Twilight Override | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 29, 2026 |
| Can't Stand It | Summerteeth | 1.7% | 8.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Hell Is Chrome | A Ghost Is Born | 1.6% | 8.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| I Am My Mother | Cruel Country | 1.5% | 7.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Not For The Season | 1.5% | 7.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 4, 2011 | |
| Someone Else's Song | Being There | 1.5% | 7.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Pick Up The Change | A.M. | 1.4% | 7.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| The Lonely 1 | Being There | 1.4% | 6.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 23, 2023 |
| Someday Soon | Being There | 1.4% | 6.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| Bob Dylan's 49th Beard | More Like The Moon EP | 1.3% | 6.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| Pickled Ginger | Star Wars | 1.3% | 6.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 17, 2017 |
| Summer Teeth | Summerteeth | 1.3% | 6.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 13, 2024 |
| That's Not The Issue | A.M. | 1.2% | 6.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 19, 2020 |
| One Sunday Morning (Song For Jane Smiley's Boyfriend) | The Whole Love | 1.1% | 5.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Outta Mind (Outta Sight) | Being There | 1.1% | 5.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Too Far Apart | A.M. | 1.1% | 5.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| The Joke Explained | Star Wars | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 5, 2023 |
| Wilco (The Song) | Wilco (the album) | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Someone to Lose | Schmilco | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 11, 2024 |
| Nothing'severgonnastandinmyway(again) | Summerteeth | 1.0% | 5.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Gun | Still Feel Gone | 1.0% | 5.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 31, 2024 |
| Story to Tell | Cruel Country | 1.0% | 5.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| The Long Cut | Anodyne | 1.0% | 4.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 22, 2026 |
| Give Back The Key To My Heart [Doug Sahm] | Anodyne | 1.0% | 4.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 3, 2023 |
| Please Tell My Brother | Weird Tales | 0.9% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Sky Blue Sky | Sky Blue Sky | 0.9% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Why Would You Wanna Live | Being There | 0.9% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 23, 2017 |
| Having Been Is No Way to Be | Warm | 0.9% | 4.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| One and a Half Stars | Ode to Joy | 0.9% | 4.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 25, 2023 |
| Should've Been In Love | A.M. | 0.9% | 4.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Locator | Schmilco | 0.9% | 4.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 1, 2022 |
| Less Than You Think | A Ghost Is Born | 0.9% | 4.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 22, 2025 |
| (Was I) In Your Dreams | Being There | 0.8% | 4.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 23, 2017 |
| I'll Fight | Wilco (the album) | 0.8% | 4.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 30, 2025 |
| You Never Know | Wilco (the album) | 0.8% | 4.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 19, 2025 |
| Cold Slope | Star Wars | 0.8% | 4.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Cry All Day | Schmilco | 0.8% | 4.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 2, 2023 |
| Wait Up | March 16-20, 1992 | 0.8% | 4.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 22, 2019 |
| Wishful Thinking | A Ghost Is Born | 0.8% | 4.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 5, 2026 |
| King of You | Star Wars | 0.8% | 4.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| The Ruling Class | 0.8% | 4.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 4, 2026 | |
| What Light | Sky Blue Sky | 0.7% | 3.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| On And On And On | Sky Blue Sky | 0.7% | 3.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Pecan Pie | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.7% | 3.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Bright Leaves | Ode to Joy | 0.7% | 3.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 2, 2023 |
| Gwendolyn | Love Is the King | 0.7% | 3.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| A Lifetime to Find | Cruel Country | 0.7% | 3.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| More... | Star Wars | 0.7% | 3.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 10, 2016 |
| Cars Can't Escape | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.7% | 3.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Let's Go Rain | Warm | 0.7% | 3.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Dreamer In My Dreams | Being There | 0.7% | 3.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Kicking Television | A Ghost Is Born | 0.7% | 3.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Be Not So Fearful [Bill Fay] | Cover | 0.6% | 3.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| ELT | Summerteeth | 0.6% | 3.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| White Wooden Cross | Ode to Joy | 0.6% | 3.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 6, 2021 |
| Camera | More Like The Moon EP | 0.6% | 3.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Evergreen | Warmer | 0.6% | 3.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Some Birds | Warm | 0.6% | 3.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Before Us | Ode to Joy | 0.6% | 3.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 22, 2021 |
| Deeper Down | Wilco (the album) | 0.6% | 3.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Meant to Be | Cousin | 0.6% | 3.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Radio King | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.6% | 3.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Hold Me Anyway | Ode to Joy | 0.6% | 2.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 7, 2021 |
| Normal American Kids | Schmilco | 0.6% | 2.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 6, 2025 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.