Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No More Poetry | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 8, 2014 |
| One Hundred Years From Now [Gram Parsons] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 31, 1998 |
| Paranoid [Black Sabbath] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 3, 1997 |
| Piss It Away | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 24, 1994 | |
| Say You Love Me | Hot Sun Cool Shroud | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 7, 2024 |
| Shrug and Destroy | Schmilco | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 9, 2016 |
| Sunloathe | The Whole Love | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| The New World [X] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 4, 2013 |
| The Plains | Cruel Country | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 11, 2022 |
| Tonight I'll Be Staying Here With You [Bob Dylan] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 27, 2023 |
| TV Eye [The Stooges] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 3, 2002 |
| Unknown??? | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 31, 2000 | |
| Walk On [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 10, 2008 |
| Waterloo Sunset [The Kinks] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 19, 2013 |
| Who Loves the Sun [The Velvet Underground] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 9, 2013 |
| Woodgrain | More Like The Moon EP | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 13, 2003 |
| You Are Not Alone | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2022 | |
| Cock In My Pocket [Iggy Pop (The Stooges)] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 2, 1996 |
| Dash 7 | A.M. | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 9, 2014 |
| Hesitation | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 2, 2025 | |
| Message From Mid-Bar | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 | |
| new song (Let's Fight) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 6, 2006 | |
| Sad Kind of Way | Cruel Country | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Solitaire | Wilco (the album) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 21, 2014 |
| The Auld Triangle [Brendan Behan] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 6, 1997 |
| Venus Stopped the Train | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 | |
| Dead Flowers [The Rolling Stones] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 11, 2013 |
| Ever Fallen In Love [The Buzzcocks] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 6, 1997 |
| I Wanna Be Sedated [The Ramones] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 14, 1997 |
| Please Be Wrong | Cruel Country | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2023 |
| Promising | Chelsea Walls | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 28, 2014 |
| Ripple [Grateful Dead] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 30, 2014 |
| She's My Rock [Sharon K Dobbins] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 27, 2023 |
| The Weight [The Band] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Turn Around and Come Back To Me | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 10, 1995 | |
| Ambulance | Cruel Country | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2023 |
| Childlike and Evergreen | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 5, 2014 |
| Dueling Banjos | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 17, 1999 | |
| Happiness | Schmilco | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 14, 2016 |
| I Wish I Was Your Mother [Ian Hunter (Mott the Hoople)] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 26, 2013 |
| Intro | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 26, 2002 | |
| Sloth [Fairport Convention] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 15, 2013 |
| The Waiting [Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 9, 2017 |
| Won't Get Fooled Again [The Who] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 19, 2000 |
| More Like The Moon | More Like The Moon EP | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Sugar Baby [Dock Boggs] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 28, 1999 |
| Tomorrow Never Knows [The Beatles] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| 36 Inches High [Jim Ford] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 5, 2011 |
| Color Me Impressed [The Replacements] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| I Can't Keep From Talking | Weird Tales | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 26, 1995 |
| I Love My Label [Nick Lowe] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 5, 2011 |
| Someday Some Morning Sometime | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 8, 2014 |
| Space Oddity [David Bowie] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 14, 2016 |
| Sunlight Ends | Cousin | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 8, 2023 |
| Interview | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 17, 2004 | |
| Ziggy Stardust [David Bowie] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 15, 1999 |
| Cinnamon Girl [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 23, 2019 |
| Comment (If All Men Are Truly Brothers) [Charles Wright and the Watts 103rd St. Rhythm Band] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 7, 2005 |
| Cruel To Be Kind [Nick Lowe] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 12, 2011 |
| Dark Neon | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Nope | Schmilco | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 15, 2016 |
| Soldier Child | Cousin | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 5, 2023 |
| Wherever | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 5, 1995 | |
| An Empty Corner | Ode to Joy | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 21, 2020 |
| Blue Eyed Soul | A.M. | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| Broken Arrow [Buffalo Springfield] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 6, 2010 |
| Mystery Binds | Cruel Country | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 27, 2023 |
| Open Mind | The Whole Love | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 11, 2013 |
| Satan, Your Kingdom Must Come Down | March 16-20, 1992 | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 31, 1997 |
| True Love Will Find You In the End [Daniel Johnston] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 10, 2015 |
| Henry & The H Bombs [Mott The Hoople] | Cover | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 31, 1998 |
| Screen Door | No Depression | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 10, 1997 |
| Levee | Cousin | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Watch Me Fall | Still Feel Gone | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 11, 1995 |
| (Don't Fear) The Reaper [Blue Öyster Cult] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| Just A Kid | The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Thank You Friends [Big Star] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| I Shall Be Released [Bob Dylan] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 26, 2008 |
| If That's Alright | Still Feel Gone | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 25, 1995 |
| Let's Hear It For Rock and Roll | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 28, 1995 | |
| Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow [Carole King] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 28, 1997 |
| Black Eye | March 16-20, 1992 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 11, 1995 |
| Don't You Honey Me | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 17, 1995 |
| Happy Birthday | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 3, 2013 | |
| Reincarnation [Roger Miller] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 9, 2022 |
| Something In The Air [Thunderclap Newman] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 14, 2005 |
| Who Were You Thinking Of [Texas Tornados] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 23, 1997 |
| Listen To Her Heart [Tom Petty] | Cover | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 20, 1995 |
| The Good Part | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| James Alley Blues [Richard "Rabbit" Brown] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| Pecan Pie | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 7, 1999 |
| Pieholden Suite | Summerteeth | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 24, 2022 |
| Political Science [Randy Newman] | Cover | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 19, 2006 |
| Rising Red Lung | The Whole Love | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 19, 2012 |
| The Thanks I Get | Sky Blue Sky Tour EP | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 21, 2020 |
| Hearts Hard to Find | Cruel Country | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 6, 2024 |
| No Sense In Lovin' | Anodyne | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 27, 1995 |
| Walk Where He Walked | Down By The Old Mainstream | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 27, 1995 |
| All Across the World | Cruel Country | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 25, 2023 |
| What's The World Got In Store | Being There | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 23, 2017 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.