Likely Tonight

A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.

Showing All time ×All artists × 665 songs · 1,957 setlisted shows in scope
Timeframe
All timeLast 3 yearsLast 12 monthsSince latest album
Artist
All artists WilcoJeff TweedyTweedy
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Song Album Likely % Shows Last 10 Last 20 Last played
Soldier Child Cousin0.1%0.6%0 / 100 / 20Apr 12, 2024
Solitaire Wilco (the album)0.1%0.6%0 / 100 / 20Mar 25, 2015
Warm (When the Sun Has Died) Warm0.1%0.6%0 / 100 / 20Jun 30, 2024
Western Clear Skies Twilight Override0.1%0.6%0 / 100 / 20Apr 7, 2026
Wherever 0.1%0.6%0 / 100 / 20Mar 31, 2012
Cruel To Be Kind [Nick Lowe]Cover0.1%0.5%0 / 100 / 20Dec 12, 2011
Dark Neon Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-20140.1%0.5%0 / 100 / 20Jan 18, 2026
Dear Employer (The Reason I Quit) Down With Wilco0.1%0.5%0 / 100 / 20Mar 31, 2026
More Like The Moon More Like The Moon EP0.1%0.5%0 / 100 / 20Apr 18, 2025
Orphan Warmer0.1%0.5%0 / 100 / 20Oct 29, 2024
Sign of Life Twilight Override0.1%0.5%0 / 100 / 20Apr 8, 2026
Slow Love Sukierae0.1%0.5%0 / 100 / 20Mar 6, 2015
Dash 7 A.M.0.1%0.5%0 / 100 / 20Dec 9, 2014
Ripple [Grateful Dead]Cover0.1%0.5%0 / 100 / 20Oct 30, 2014
So Much Wine (Butterfly) [The Handsome Family]Cover0.1%0.5%0 / 100 / 20May 13, 2016
Ain't It a Shame Twilight Override0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Jan 5, 2026
Amar Bharati Twilight Override0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Jan 8, 2026
Color Me Impressed [The Replacements]Cover0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Jun 21, 2013
Down In The Willow Garden 0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Mar 31, 2012
Helpless [Neil Young]Cover0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Oct 10, 2025
I Wish I Was Your Mother [Ian Hunter (Mott the Hoople)]Cover0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Jul 26, 2013
Interview 0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Nov 17, 2004
Natural Disaster Love Is the King0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Oct 29, 2024
Oklahoma USA [The Kinks]Cover0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Apr 22, 2017
Space Oddity [David Bowie]Cover0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20May 14, 2016
The Family Gardener Down With Wilco0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Mar 23, 2019
The Red Brick Warm0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Jun 30, 2024
Tonight I'll Be Staying Here With You [Bob Dylan]Cover0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Sep 27, 2023
You Were Wrong Loose Fur0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Jan 24, 2007
Ziggy Stardust [David Bowie]Cover0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Aug 15, 1999
36 Inches High [Jim Ford]Cover0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Oct 5, 2011
A Long Time Ago 0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Jan 17, 2026
All The Same To Me Weird Tales0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Feb 14, 2009
Childlike and Evergreen Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-20140.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20May 15, 2015
Down from Above Sukierae0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Jul 17, 2014
I Love My Label [Nick Lowe]Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-20140.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Oct 5, 2011
Millionaire 0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20May 16, 2003
New Wave Theater 0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Sep 20, 2018
Please Be Wrong Cruel Country0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20Apr 30, 2023
Simple Twist Of Fate [Bob Dylan]Cover0.1%0.4%0 / 100 / 20May 14, 2016
God [John Lennon]Cover0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Mar 28, 2015
Happiness Schmilco0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Jun 25, 2023
Jesus Wept 0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20May 31, 2024
Message From Mid-Bar 0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Jun 28, 2024
Monkey Mess 0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Mar 12, 2001
The Community Song 0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Feb 14, 2014
Tomorrow Never Knows [The Beatles]Cover0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Jan 15, 2026
Dueling Banjos 0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Feb 17, 1999
Ever Fallen In Love [The Buzzcocks]Cover0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Nov 18, 1997
Fake Plastic Trees [Radiohead]Cover0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Mar 27, 2009
How Hard It Is for a Desert to Die Warm0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Jun 30, 2024
I Wish My Baby Was Born March 16-20, 19920.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Mar 30, 2012
Intro 0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20May 26, 2002
It Must Be Love [Labi Siffre]Cover0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20May 29, 2022
Sad Kind of Way Cruel Country0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Dec 15, 2024
Sloth [Fairport Convention]Cover0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Jul 15, 2013
The Waiting [Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers]Cover0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Oct 9, 2017
Venus Stopped the Train 0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Dec 13, 2024
Where My Love Sukierae0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Jun 16, 2014
Won't Get Fooled Again [The Who]Cover0.1%0.3%0 / 100 / 20Nov 19, 2000
Bad Day Lately Love Is the King0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 19, 2022
Daggers Drawn Down With Wilco0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
Days Of Wine And Booze Down With Wilco0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
Dead Flowers [The Rolling Stones]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Oct 11, 2013
Dreaming [Debbie Harry/Chris Stein (Blondie)]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 29, 2005
I Wanna Be Sedated [The Ramones]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jun 14, 1997
I Wanna Be Your Dog 0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Mar 26, 2009
I Wanna Be Your Mama Again [Doug Sahm]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jun 4, 2021
I'm Into Something Good [Carole King and Gerry Goffin]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Mar 22, 2019
I'm Not Bitter Down With Wilco0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
Just Say Goodbye Schmilco0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jun 28, 2024
Life Left Him There Down With Wilco0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
Lyrical Stance At the Organ0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
Reflections On A Crystal Wind [Richard & Mimi Farina]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Sep 12, 2000
Retrieval Of You Down With Wilco0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
She's My Rock [Sharon K Dobbins]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Sep 27, 2023
Ten Sentences Warmer0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jul 17, 2021
That's Not The Way It's Done Down With Wilco0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
The Town That Lost Its Groove Supply Down With Wilco0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 30, 2003
The Weight [The Band]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 20, 2022
Turn Around and Come Back To Me 0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Sep 10, 1995
View From Below Down With Wilco0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
Walk On [Neil Young]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Aug 10, 2008
Where Will You Go? Down With Wilco0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 29, 2003
Yesterday [Paul McCartney]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Nov 15, 1998
...And Then You Cut It in Half Warmer0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 20, 2020
A Bowl and a Pudding Cousin0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Oct 29, 2024
Ain't No Doubt About It 0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Mar 1, 2022
Better Song Twilight Override0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Apr 5, 2026
Can't Stand Yourself Arabella0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 23, 2004
Cock In My Pocket [Iggy Pop (The Stooges)]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Dec 2, 1996
Everybody Knows This Is Nowhere 0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Mar 31, 2016
From Far Away Warm0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Dec 13, 2024
Heart Like a Wheel [Kate & Anna McGarrigle]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 23, 2004
Hesitation 0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Aug 2, 2025
I Got You [Split Enz]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jun 24, 2011
I Still Miss Someone [Johnny Cash]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20May 17, 2003
I'm Only Sleeping [Lennon/McCartney]Cover0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 29, 2005
In Christ, There Is No East Or West 0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Oct 27, 2006
Juniper Arabella0.0%0.2%0 / 100 / 20Jan 23, 2004

How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.

Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.