Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Beard Of Stars [T. Rex] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 2, 2001 |
| Ain't Much To Say | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 21, 1994 | |
| All The Young Dudes [David Bowie/Mott The Hoople] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 26, 2013 |
| Amarillo Highway [Terry Allen] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 15, 2022 |
| And Your Bird Can Sing [The Beatles] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| Any Major Dude Will Tell You [Donald Fagen/Walter Becker (Steely Dan)] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 5, 1999 |
| Auld Lang Syne | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 31, 2004 | |
| Baba O'Riley [The Who] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 30, 2000 |
| Bang Bang (My Baby Shot Me Down) [Cher] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 3, 2013 |
| Blasting Fonda | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 11, 2014 |
| Chest Fever [The Band] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 21, 2013 |
| Citizens | Ode to Joy | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 5, 2019 |
| Climbing [Meat Puppets] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 27, 2022 |
| Cold Shoulder | Still Feel Gone | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 6, 1996 |
| Colon Song | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 16, 2000 | |
| Common Sense | Schmilco | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 15, 2016 |
| Cortez the Killer [Neil Young] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Dark California Stars | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 4, 2013 | |
| Darkness Is Cheap | Cruel Country | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 27, 2022 |
| Dear Employer (The Reason I Quit) | Down With Wilco | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 14, 2003 |
| Down In The Willow Garden | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 30, 1998 | |
| Drown [Son Volt] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 23, 1997 |
| Easter Bunny ditty | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 4, 2010 | |
| Freedom Highway [The Staple Singers] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Friend of the Devil [Grateful Dead] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 27, 2013 |
| From Far Away | Warm | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Get Lucky [Daft Punk] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| Gut Feeling / Slap Your Mammy [Devo] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 31, 2004 |
| Hello Cruel World | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 11, 1995 | |
| Helter Skelter [The Beatles] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 13, 2021 |
| Honky Tonk Women [The Rolling Stones] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 24, 2021 |
| I Am The Walrus [The Beatles] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 16, 2019 |
| I Wanna Be Your Dog | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 13, 1995 | |
| I Want You To Want Me [Cheap Trick] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 27, 1997 |
| I'll Take You There [The Staple Singers] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 20, 2022 |
| I'm Going Home | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 1997 | |
| John Wesley Harding [Bob Dylan] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 25, 2005 |
| Jumping Jack Flash [The Rolling Stones] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 29, 1997 |
| Leave Me (Like You Found Me) | Sky Blue Sky | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 19, 2008 |
| Lies of the Living Dead | In Rock | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 15, 2001 |
| Livin' After Midnight [Judas Priest] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 31, 2004 |
| Long Black Veil [Wilkin/Dill] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 21, 2013 |
| Marquee Moon [Television] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| Modern World | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 15, 2001 | |
| New Years Countdown | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 31, 1997 | |
| No Church Tonight | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 9, 2000 | |
| No Romance | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 5, 1999 | |
| Oklahoma USA [The Kinks] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 10, 1997 |
| Once A Day [Bill Anderson] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 27, 2022 |
| Outtro | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 13, 1996 | |
| Please Be Patient With Me | Sky Blue Sky | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 15, 2008 |
| Psycho Killer [Talking Heads] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 15, 1999 |
| Psychotic Reaction [Count Five] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| Rainbow Connection [Kermit The Frog] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 30, 1998 |
| Roadrunner [The Modern Lovers] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| Rock n Roll Queen | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 7, 1995 | |
| Sandusky | March 16-20, 1992 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 17, 1996 |
| Should I Stay Or Should I Go? [The Clash] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 31, 1998 |
| Simple Twist Of Fate [Bob Dylan] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| Smoke on the Water [Deep Purple] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 23, 2000 |
| St. Stephen [Grateful Dead] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 4, 2013 |
| Sunday Bloody Sunday [U2] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 4, 1997 |
| Surrender [Cheap Trick] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| Suzanne [Leonard Cohen] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 15, 2013 |
| Tell Your Friends | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 | |
| Ten Dead | Cousin | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Sep 28, 2023 |
| That's How I Got to Memphis [Tom T Hall] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 9, 2022 |
| The Boys Are Back in Town [Thin Lizzy] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| The Calvary Cross [Richard Thompson] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 11, 2013 |
| The Empty Condor | Cruel Country | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 27, 2022 |
| The Shape I'm In [The Band] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 1997 |
| The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald [Gordon Lightfoot] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 9, 2013 |
| These Boots Are Made for Walkin' [Nancy Sinatra] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 3, 2013 |
| Thirteen [Alex Chilton (Big Star)] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 9, 2014 |
| Tom Courtenay [Yo La Tengo] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| Tonight's the Day | Cruel Country | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 27, 2022 |
| Twinkle Twinkle Little Star [Jane Taylor] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 5, 1997 |
| Wasn't Born To Follow [The Byrds] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 6, 2015 |
| Waterloo [ABBA] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 21, 2013 |
| When I Paint My Masterpiece [Bob Dylan] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 4, 2013 |
| When I'm Gone | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 8, 1995 | |
| Wild Mountain Thyme [Traditional] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 27, 2022 |
| You Were Wrong | Loose Fur | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 24, 2003 |
| (What's So Funny 'Bout) Peace, Love and Understanding [Nick Lowe] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jul 18, 2013 |
| Alone | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 | |
| Can't Stop Talking | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 27, 1995 | |
| Cold Turkey | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Mar 31, 1997 | |
| Come Together [The Beatles] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 15, 1999 |
| Cut Your Hair [Pavement] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Death of the Last Stripper [Terry Allen] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Oct 9, 2022 |
| Everlasting Everything | Wilco (the album) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 11, 2014 |
| Everybody Knows This Is Nowhere | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 28, 1999 | |
| Happy Xmas (War Is Over) [John Lennon & Yoko Ono] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 19, 2019 |
| I Got You [Split Enz] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 24, 2011 |
| I Thought I Held You | A.M. | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Feb 20, 2008 |
| I Wanna Destroy You [Soft Boys] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 16, 2019 |
| Just Say Goodbye | Schmilco | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Just Wanted to Thank You | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 12, 1995 | |
| Lost Love | Weird Tales | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Nov 23, 1994 |
| Love Will Keep Us Together [Captain And Tennille] | Cover | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 31, 2004 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.