Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impossible Germany | Sky Blue Sky | 92% | 92% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Handshake Drugs | A Ghost Is Born | 92% | 89% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Bird Without a Tail/Base of My Skull | Cruel Country | 91% | 86% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| California Stars | Mermaid Avenue | 90% | 83% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| If I Ever Was a Child | Schmilco | 80% | 65% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Jesus, Etc. | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 79% | 90% | 7 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Kingpin | Being There | 77% | 16% | 9 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Walken | Sky Blue Sky | 76% | 43% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Forget The Flowers | Being There | 75% | 35% | 8 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Hummingbird | A Ghost Is Born | 73% | 89% | 6 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Via Chicago | Summerteeth | 73% | 57% | 7 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Evicted | Cousin | 72% | 85% | 6 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Cruel Country | Cruel Country | 71% | 79% | 6 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Annihilation | Hot Sun Cool Shroud | 65% | 49% | 6 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| I'm The Man Who Loves You | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 64% | 47% | 6 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Heavy Metal Drummer | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 63% | 74% | 5 / 10 | 15 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Falling Apart (Right Now) | Cruel Country | 63% | 72% | 5 / 10 | 15 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| I Am Trying To Break Your Heart | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 63% | 78% | 5 / 10 | 14 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Either Way | Sky Blue Sky | 63% | 47% | 6 / 10 | 15 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| I'm Always In Love | Summerteeth | 61% | 31% | 6 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| It's Just That Simple | A.M. | 61% | 28% | 6 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| I Got You (At The End Of The Century) | Being There | 57% | 44% | 5 / 10 | 15 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Box Full Of Letters | A.M. | 55% | 64% | 4 / 10 | 14 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| War On War | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 54% | 27% | 5 / 10 | 15 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Everyone Hides | Ode to Joy | 52% | 18% | 6 / 10 | 12 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| The Late Greats | A Ghost Is Born | 50% | 56% | 4 / 10 | 12 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Hate It Here | Sky Blue Sky | 44% | 26% | 4 / 10 | 12 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Spiders (Kidsmoke) | A Ghost Is Born | 42% | 54% | 3 / 10 | 10 / 20 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Losing Traction | 32% | 3.0% | 5 / 10 | 5 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 | |
| You And I | Wilco (the album) | 32% | 18% | 2 / 10 | 11 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Outtasite (Outta Mind) | Being There | 30% | 28% | 3 / 10 | 6 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Kamera | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 29% | 16% | 3 / 10 | 7 / 20 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Christ For President | Mermaid Avenue | 25% | 2.4% | 4 / 10 | 4 / 20 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Theologians | A Ghost Is Born | 25% | 28% | 2 / 10 | 6 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Company In My Back | A Ghost Is Born | 24% | 24% | 3 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Shouldn't Be Ashamed | A.M. | 19% | 7.8% | 2 / 10 | 5 / 20 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Whole Love | The Whole Love | 17% | 34% | 1 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Love Is Everywhere (Beware) | Ode to Joy | 16% | 25% | 1 / 10 | 4 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Candyfloss | Summerteeth | 15% | 3.6% | 2 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Sonny Feeling | Wilco (the album) | 13% | 3.6% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Hesitating Beauty | Mermaid Avenue | 9.4% | 16% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| I Am My Mother | Cruel Country | 9.2% | 46% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 16, 2025 |
| A Shot In The Arm | Summerteeth | 9.1% | 46% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| You Are My Face | Sky Blue Sky | 8.8% | 18% | 0 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| One Wing | Wilco (the album) | 8.6% | 17% | 0 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Side With The Seeds | Sky Blue Sky | 8.5% | 43% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Art of Almost | The Whole Love | 8.4% | 11% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Secret Of The Sea | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| You Satellite | Star Wars | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Remember The Mountain Bed | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.7% | 2.4% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Say You Miss Me | Being There | 6.7% | 2.4% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Airline To Heaven | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| All You Fascists | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Another Man's Done Gone [Woody Guthrie] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| At My Window Sad And Lonely | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Birds And Ships | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Flawed Men | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 | |
| Give Me a Nail | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 3 | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Guess I Planted | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Hoodoo Voodoo | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| In The Street [Big Star] | Cover | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Ingrid Bergman | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| My Flying Saucer | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| One By One | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| She Came Along To Me | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Stetson Kennedy | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| The Jolly Banker [Woody Guthrie] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| The Unwelcome Guest | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| This Land Is Your Land [Woody Guthrie] | Cover | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Walt Whitman's Niece | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Way Over Yonder In The Minor Key | Mermaid Avenue | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| When The Roses Bloom Again | Chelsea Walls | 6.4% | 0.6% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Meant to Be | Cousin | 6.1% | 31% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Random Name Generator | Star Wars | 4.9% | 25% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| The Universe | Cruel Country | 4.8% | 6.6% | 0 / 10 | 2 / 20 | May 8, 2026 |
| Quiet Amplifier | Ode to Joy | 4.8% | 24% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 1, 2026 |
| Infinite Surprise | Cousin | 4.7% | 23% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Cousin | Cousin | 4.6% | 23% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 22, 2024 |
| Misunderstood | Being There | 4.4% | 22% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Wishful Thinking | A Ghost Is Born | 4.4% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 5, 2026 |
| Country Song Upside-Down | Cruel Country | 4.3% | 4.2% | 0 / 10 | 2 / 20 | May 8, 2026 |
| Pittsburgh | Cousin | 3.7% | 19% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 6, 2025 |
| Story to Tell | Cruel Country | 3.7% | 19% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| At Least That's What You Said | A Ghost Is Born | 3.6% | 18% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 20, 2025 |
| Sunken Treasure | Being There | 3.4% | 17% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Monday | Being There | 2.8% | 14% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 1, 2026 |
| Dawned On Me | The Whole Love | 2.6% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Muzzle Of Bees | A Ghost Is Born | 2.3% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 1, 2026 |
| Hell Is Chrome | A Ghost Is Born | 2.2% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| She's A Jar | Summerteeth | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | May 6, 2026 |
| I Heard You Looking [Yo La Tengo] | Cover | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Levee | Cousin | 1.6% | 7.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| I'm A Wheel | A Ghost Is Born | 1.4% | 7.2% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| U.S. Blues [Grateful Dead] | Cover | 1.3% | 6.6% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 30, 2025 |
| Pot Kettle Black | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 1.2% | 6.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 27, 2025 |
| Soldier Child | Cousin | 1.2% | 6.0% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 5, 2023 |
| Cold Slope | Star Wars | 1.1% | 5.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| How To Fight Loneliness | Summerteeth | 1.1% | 5.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 9, 2025 |
| I'll Fight | Wilco (the album) | 1.1% | 5.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 30, 2025 |
| What Light | Sky Blue Sky | 1.1% | 5.4% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 27, 2026 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.