Likely Tonight
A weighted-recency score for every song in the window: how likely you are to hear it at the next show, leaning hardest on the most recent shows. Method adapted from u/DoorGuote’s r/wilco analysis — details below.
Showing Since Hot Sun Cool Shroud (Jun 2024) Wilco 158 songs · 103
setlisted shows in scope
Timeframe
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| Song | Album | Likely | % Shows | Last 10 | Last 20 | Last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impossible Germany | Sky Blue Sky | 97% | 91% | 10 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Bird Without a Tail/Base of My Skull | Cruel Country | 96% | 90% | 10 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Handshake Drugs | A Ghost Is Born | 96% | 90% | 10 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| California Stars | Mermaid Avenue | 96% | 88% | 10 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Via Chicago | Summerteeth | 89% | 72% | 10 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| If I Ever Was a Child | Schmilco | 89% | 83% | 9 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Jesus, Etc. | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 88% | 88% | 9 / 10 | 17 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Walken | Sky Blue Sky | 87% | 74% | 9 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Hummingbird | A Ghost Is Born | 86% | 87% | 9 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Kingpin | Being There | 84% | 30% | 10 / 10 | 19 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Forget The Flowers | Being There | 83% | 57% | 9 / 10 | 18 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| I'm The Man Who Loves You | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 82% | 68% | 9 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Evicted | Cousin | 82% | 88% | 8 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Cruel Country | Cruel Country | 78% | 69% | 8 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Heavy Metal Drummer | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 77% | 74% | 8 / 10 | 15 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| I Got You (At The End Of The Century) | Being There | 75% | 64% | 8 / 10 | 15 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Annihilation | Hot Sun Cool Shroud | 74% | 83% | 7 / 10 | 15 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| It's Just That Simple | A.M. | 74% | 50% | 8 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| I'm Always In Love | Summerteeth | 73% | 47% | 8 / 10 | 16 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| War On War | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 71% | 44% | 8 / 10 | 15 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Either Way | Sky Blue Sky | 71% | 75% | 7 / 10 | 14 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Falling Apart (Right Now) | Cruel Country | 71% | 74% | 7 / 10 | 14 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| I Am Trying To Break Your Heart | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 68% | 67% | 7 / 10 | 13 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| The Late Greats | A Ghost Is Born | 61% | 50% | 7 / 10 | 11 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Everyone Hides | Ode to Joy | 60% | 28% | 7 / 10 | 13 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Hate It Here | Sky Blue Sky | 57% | 45% | 6 / 10 | 12 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Box Full Of Letters | A.M. | 52% | 76% | 4 / 10 | 11 / 20 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Losing Traction | 49% | 8.7% | 7 / 10 | 9 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 | |
| Outtasite (Outta Mind) | Being There | 39% | 28% | 5 / 10 | 6 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Company In My Back | A Ghost Is Born | 39% | 37% | 5 / 10 | 5 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Spiders (Kidsmoke) | A Ghost Is Born | 38% | 50% | 3 / 10 | 8 / 20 | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Shouldn't Be Ashamed | A.M. | 31% | 14% | 4 / 10 | 6 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Kamera | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 30% | 9.7% | 4 / 10 | 6 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| You And I | Wilco (the album) | 22% | 24% | 1 / 10 | 7 / 20 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Love Is Everywhere (Beware) | Ode to Joy | 21% | 27% | 2 / 10 | 4 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Whole Love | The Whole Love | 19% | 39% | 1 / 10 | 4 / 20 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Theologians | A Ghost Is Born | 18% | 32% | 1 / 10 | 4 / 20 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| You Are My Face | Sky Blue Sky | 16% | 29% | 1 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Say You Miss Me | Being There | 13% | 4.9% | 2 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| One Wing | Wilco (the album) | 13% | 17% | 1 / 10 | 3 / 20 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Christ For President | Mermaid Avenue | 12% | 3.9% | 1 / 10 | 4 / 20 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Quiet Amplifier | Ode to Joy | 7.8% | 39% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 1, 2026 |
| Side With The Seeds | Sky Blue Sky | 7.2% | 36% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Hesitating Beauty | Mermaid Avenue | 6.6% | 24% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| In The Street [Big Star] | Cover | 6.4% | 1.0% | 1 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Art of Almost | The Whole Love | 5.1% | 17% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Meant to Be | Cousin | 4.9% | 24% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Candyfloss | Summerteeth | 4.7% | 5.8% | 0 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Sonny Feeling | Wilco (the album) | 4.7% | 5.8% | 0 / 10 | 2 / 20 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Sunken Treasure | Being There | 4.3% | 21% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Wishful Thinking | A Ghost Is Born | 4.3% | 21% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 5, 2026 |
| Story to Tell | Cruel Country | 3.9% | 19% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| At Least That's What You Said | A Ghost Is Born | 3.5% | 17% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 20, 2025 |
| Secret Of The Sea | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 2.9% | 5.8% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Random Name Generator | Star Wars | 2.9% | 15% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| You Satellite | Star Wars | 2.7% | 4.9% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Remember The Mountain Bed | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 2.5% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| A Shot In The Arm | Summerteeth | 2.5% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| I Am My Mother | Cruel Country | 2.5% | 13% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 16, 2025 |
| Muzzle Of Bees | A Ghost Is Born | 2.1% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 1, 2026 |
| U.S. Blues [Grateful Dead] | Cover | 2.1% | 11% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 30, 2025 |
| Airline To Heaven | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| All You Fascists | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Another Man's Done Gone [Woody Guthrie] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| At My Window Sad And Lonely | Mermaid Avenue | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Birds And Ships | Mermaid Avenue | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Flawed Men | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 27, 2026 | |
| Give Me a Nail | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 3 | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Guess I Planted | Mermaid Avenue | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Hoodoo Voodoo | Mermaid Avenue | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| I Heard You Looking [Yo La Tengo] | Cover | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Ingrid Bergman | Mermaid Avenue | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| My Flying Saucer | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| One By One | Mermaid Avenue | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| She Came Along To Me | Mermaid Avenue | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Stetson Kennedy | Mermaid Avenue, Vol. 2 | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| The Jolly Banker [Woody Guthrie] | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| The Unwelcome Guest | Mermaid Avenue | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| This Land Is Your Land [Woody Guthrie] | Cover | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Walt Whitman's Niece | Mermaid Avenue | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Way Over Yonder In The Minor Key | Mermaid Avenue | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| When The Roses Bloom Again | Chelsea Walls | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0 / 10 | 1 / 20 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Monday | Being There | 1.9% | 9.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 1, 2026 |
| The Universe | Cruel Country | 1.9% | 9.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 8, 2026 |
| Cold Slope | Star Wars | 1.7% | 8.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Pot Kettle Black | Yankee Hotel Foxtrot | 1.7% | 8.7% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 27, 2025 |
| Country Song Upside-Down | Cruel Country | 1.4% | 6.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 8, 2026 |
| One Sunday Morning (Song For Jane Smiley's Boyfriend) | The Whole Love | 1.4% | 6.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Panthers (Proving Death Again) | Alpha Mike Foxtrot: Rare Tracks 1994-2014 | 1.4% | 6.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| King of You | Star Wars | 1.2% | 5.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Less Than You Think | A Ghost Is Born | 1.2% | 5.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jun 22, 2025 |
| What Light | Sky Blue Sky | 1.2% | 5.8% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Camera | More Like The Moon EP | 1.0% | 4.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Casino Queen | A.M. | 1.0% | 4.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Hell Is Chrome | A Ghost Is Born | 1.0% | 4.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Hints | Cruel Country | 1.0% | 4.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | May 6, 2025 |
| I'm A Wheel | A Ghost Is Born | 1.0% | 4.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
| Let's Not Get Carried Away | Sky Blue Sky Tour EP | 1.0% | 4.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| A Magazine Called Sunset | More Like The Moon EP | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Blue Eyed Soul | A.M. | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0 / 10 | 0 / 20 | Dec 14, 2024 |
How “Likely” is scored. For each song we take the fraction of shows it appeared in over three nested lookbacks — the last 10 shows, the last 20 shows, and the full window — and blend them, weighting the most recent shows heaviest: 45% last 10 + 35% last 20 + 20% full window. The three fractions are each 0–100%, so the score is itself a rough probability.
Methodology adapted, with thanks, from “Analyzed last 3 years of Wilco setlists” by u/DoorGuote on the r/wilco subreddit.